The Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States The Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States .

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1、TheMacroeconomicImplicationsofRisingWageInequalityintheUnitedStates*JonathanHeathcoteFederalReserveBankofMinneapolisandCEPRKjetilStoreslettenFederalReserveBankofMinneapolis,UniversityofOslo,andCEPRGiovanniL.ViolanteNewYorkUniversity,CEPR,andNBER*Wearegratefult

2、oOrazioAttanasio,DirkKrueger,andFabrizioPerriforhelpwiththeCEXdata,andtoGregKaplanforoutstandingresearchassistance.HeathcoteandViolantethanktheNationalScienceFoundation(GrantSEP-0418029).StoreslettenthanksESOP,supportedbytheResearchCouncilofNorway.Theopinionse

3、xpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsandnotnecessarilythoseoftheFederalReserveBankofMinneapolisortheFederalReserveSystem.AbstractInrecentdecades,Americanworkershavefacedarisingcollegepremium,anarrowinggendergap,andincreasingwagevolatility.Thispaperexploresthequan

4、titativeandwelfareimpli-cationsofthesechanges.Theframeworkisanincomplete-marketslife-cyclemodelinwhichindividualschooseeducation,intra-familytimeallocation,andsavings.GiventheobservedhistoryoftheUSwagestructure,themodelreplicateskeytrendsincross-sectionalinequ

5、alityinhoursworked,earningsandconsumption.Recentcohortsenjoywelfaregains,onaverage,ashigherrelativewagesforcollege-graduatesandforwomentranslateintohighereducationalattainmentandamoreevendivisionoflaborwithinthehousehold.21IntroductionThestructureofrelativewag

6、esintheUSeconomyhasundergoneamajortransformationinthelastthreedecades.Wagedifferentialsbetweencollegegraduatesandhighschoolgraduatesdroppedinthe1970s,buthaverisensharplysincethen(KatzandAutor,1999).Thewagegapbetweenmenandwomenhasshrunksignificantly(Goldin,2006).

7、Withinnarrowgroupsofworkersdefinedbyeducation,gender,andage,thedistributionofwageshasbecomemuchmoredispersed(Juhn,Murphy,andPierce,1993).Thisincreaseinresidualwagedispersionreflectsincreasingvolatilityinbothpersistentandtransitoryshocks(GottschalkandMoffitt,1994).

8、Overall,theUSwagestructurehasbecomemoreunequal.Whataretheimplicationsofthisriseinwageinequalityforthemacroeconomyandforhouseholdwelfare?Risingvolatilitymaybeexpectedtoreducewelfare