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1、TheEconomicJournal,124(May),507539.Doi:10.1111/ecoj.12134©2014RoyalEconomicSociety.PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,9600GarsingtonRoad,OxfordOX42DQ,UKand350MainStreet,Malden,MA02148,USA.TRADEIMBALANCES,EXPORTSTRUCTUREANDWAGEINEQUALITY*RosarioCrinoandPaoloEpifaniWestudy,boththeoreticallya
2、ndempirically,howtradeimbalancesaffectthestructureofcountriesexportsandwageinequality.Weshowthat,inaHeckscher–Ohlinmodelwithacontinuumofgoods,aSouthern(Northern)tradesurplusleadstoanincrease(reduction)intheaverageskillintensityofexports,intherelativedemandforskillsandintheskillprem
3、iuminbothcountries.Weproviderobustsupportforthemechanismunderlyingthesepredictionsusingalargepanelofcountriesobservedoverthepast30years.OurresultssuggestthatthelargeandgrowingNorth–Southtradeimbalancesarisenoverthelastthreedecadesmayhaveexacerbatedwageinequalityworldwide.Inthisarti
4、cleweillustrateanewchannel,relatedtoglobalimbalances,throughwhich1internationaltrademayincreasewageinequalityworldwide.Tomotivateouranalysis,Figure1plotsworldtradeflows(dottedline),aswellasNorth–Southforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)flows(dashedline)andNorth–Southtradedeficits(solidline)be
5、tween1977and2010.ThemainmessagefromtheFigureisthattheriseoftradeandinvestmentflowswhichhascharacterisedthelatestwaveofglobalisationhasbeenaccompaniedbyacceleratingtradeimbalances.Itfollowsthattheimpactofglobalisationonwageinequality,oneofthemostimportantandcontroversialissuesininter
6、nationaleconomics,isunlikelytobefullyunderstoodwithoutconsideringthespecificroleoftradeimbalances.Theaimofthisarticleisthereforetodevelopandtestasimpletheorythatprovidesanovelviewonthedistributionalimplicationsofglobalisationcumimbalances,therebyfillinganimportantgapinthetradeliterat
7、ure.Topreviewthekeypatterninourdata,inFigure2weconsidertwoskill-richcountries,theUSandJapan,andtwoskill-poorcountries,ChinaandChile.TheFigureplotsthemanufacturingtradesurplusoverGDP(dashedline)andaproxyfortheaverageskillintensityofmanufacturingexports(solidline)overtheperiod1977–20
8、10.Thelattervariablewilltu
