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1、January12,2013GOAL:GlobalOpportunityAssetLocatorPortfolioStrategyResearchStillpro-risk,butdowngradingcommoditiestoneutralMacrooutlook:Globalgrowthaccelerationin2013AndersNielsen+44(20)7552-3000anders.e.nielsen@gs.comWeexpectglobalgrowthtoimprovefrom3.1%in2012Eto3
2、.3%in2013,GoldmanSachsInternationalandtoacceleratefurtherto4.1%in2014.Weseethisyearasimprovinguponlastyearinthreeotherdimensions:(1)ourprofileforgrowthshowsPeterOppenheimer+44(20)7552-5782peter.oppenheimer@gs.comsequentialaccelerationthroughtheyear;(2)Europeanris
3、ksaresmallerGoldmanSachsInternationalthanin2012followingtheECB’sOMTprogramme;and(3)theoilsupplyconstraintonglobalgrowthisloosening.Inthenearterm,wecouldseeJeffreyCurrie(212)357-6801jeffrey.currie@gs.comheadwindsfromthedebtlimitnegotiationsandcontinuedsluggishUSGo
4、ldman,Sachs&Co.growthin1Q2013E,beforereaccelerationlaterintheyear.FrancescoGarzarelli+44(20)7774-5078francesco.garzarelli@gs.comOurviewsacrossassetclassesGoldmanSachsInternationalEquities:Wemaintainourequityoverweightoverboththreeand12CharlesP.Himmelbergmonths.We
5、expectreturnstobesupportedbyacombinationofarebound(917)343-3218charles.himmelberg@gs.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.inglobalgrowth,acceleratingearningsgrowthandhighriskpremia.Commodities:Webelievethatweareinastructurallystableoilmarket,DavidJ.Kostinwithlong-datedpricesancho
6、redaroundUS$90/bbl.Inthisenvironment(212)902-6781david.kostin@gs.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.attractiverollyieldsshouldsupportreturnsfromcommodityinvestments.Still,giventherecentpriceincreasesincommoditiesexcludingpreciousKathyMatsuimetalsandupcomingUSrisks,weareshifting
7、ourcommodity+81(3)6437-9950kathy.matsui@gs.comGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.recommendationtoneutralonbothathreeand12-monthhorizon.Corporatecredit:WeexpecttightIGspreadstocompressfurtherasstillTimothyMoe,CFA+852-2978-1328timothy.moe@gs.comsluggishgrowth,subduedtailrisk
8、sandQEfeedthesearchforyield,GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.againstabackdropofstrongmicrofundamentals,especiallyintheUS.ThomasStolperGovernmentbonds:Bondyieldsremainlo
