August 2013-Goldman Sachs-Global Themes and Risks

《August 2013-Goldman Sachs-Global Themes and Risks》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.GoldmanSachsResearchGlobalThemesandRisksAugust2013AbbyJosephCohen,CFAGoldman,Sachs&Co.1-212-902-4095abby.cohen@gs.comKobySadanGoldman,Sachs&Co.1-212-902-7009koby.sadan@gs.comTheGlobalMarketsInstituteisthepublicpolicyresearchunitofGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.Itsmis

2、sionistoprovideresearchandhigh-leveladvisoryservicestopolicymakers,regulatorsandinvestorsaroundtheworld.TheInstituteleveragestheexpertiseofResearchandotherGoldmanSachsprofessionals,aswellashighlyregardedpartners,toofferwrittenanalysesandhostdiscussionforums.CompositionofUSGDP,2006-2014Reducedgover

3、nmentspendingadragonGDPgrowth20062007200820092010201120122013(E)2014(E)GDP2.7%1.9%(0.3)%(3.1)%2.4%1.8%2.2%1.5%2.8%DomesticFinalDemand2.61.2(1.5)(4.0)2.81.72.11.53.0PersonalConsumption2.92.3(0.6)(1.9)1.82.51.91.92.5ResidentialFixedInvestment(7.3)(18.7)(23.9)(22.4)(3.7)(1.4)12.115.415.2BusinessFixed

4、Investment8.06.5(0.8)(18.1)0.78.68.04.68.8Government2.11.37.26.14.5(2.8)(2.2)(5.9)(5.2)Exports9.09.36.1(9.1)11.16.73.41.54.7Imports6.12.4(2.7)(13.5)12.54.82.41.55.0Source:GoldmanSachsEconomicsResearch.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2CompositionofUSGDP,2013-2014Expectquarterlyvolatilitylinkedt

5、oweather,inventoriesandglobalfactorsincludingEuropeanactivityGrowthRates20132014Q1Q2EQ3EQ4EQ1EQ2EQ3EQ4EGDP1.8%0.6%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%3.5%3.5%DomesticFinalDemand1.81.22.12.63.13.73.73.7PersonalConsumption2.61.22.02.02.53.03.03.0ResidentialFixedInvestment14.018.815.015.015.015.015.015.0BusinessFixedInv

6、estment0.42.78.69.39.39.39.39.3Government(8.7)(1.5)(10.0)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)(4.0)(3.0)Exports(1.1)5.64.04.05.05.05.05.0Imports(0.4)8.84.04.05.05.05.55.5Source:GoldmanSachsEconomicsResearch.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch3ConsumerdebtservicepaymentsasapercentageofDPIatlowestlevelssincemid-1990s151

7、41312Debtservicepaymentsas%ofdisposablepersonalincome11DSPasa%ofDPIbacktomid-1990slevels1019801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Source:FederalReserveBoard,GoldmanSachsResearch.Goldma