China Nuclear Power 2014 merrill

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1、PRCPowerPriceObjectiveChangeEquity

2、China

3、ElectricUtilities06December2013China’sfive-foldnuclearpowerexpansionplanAngelloChan>>+85221617187ResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKong)RMB700bnseven-yearnuclearexpansionplanangello.chan@baml.comWebelieveChinaisenteringastageofrapiddevelopmentinnuclear

4、power.FromXiaobingWang>>+85221617233ourchannelchecks,webelieveChinawillliftitsinstallednuclearpowercapacityResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKong)from13GWin2012to40GWby2015andto60-70GWby2020.Weestimatethexiaobing.wang@baml.comtotalinvestmentneededforthisexpansionwillbeRMB700bnormoreoutto2020.Y

5、ongtaoShi>>+85225363453ResearchAnalystScale,lowgeneration&transmissioncost/kWh&emissionsMerrillLynch(HongKong)Inadditiontomaterialscaleandinvestmentrequirements,emissionsofnuclearyongtao.shi@baml.compoweroutputismuchlowervsfossilfuelpoweroutput.Powergenerationcostandon-gridtariff(for2.5Gplan

6、ts)atRMB0.43/kWhislowervsgas-fired,solarandwindpower.NuclearpowerplantslocatednearcoastalconsumptioncentersrequireTable1:Firmswithrev.fromnuclearsectormuchlesstransmissioncostvswindandsolaroutputfromN&NWChina.NuclearCurrentBAS-MLCompaniesBBGTickeroutputisalsobaseloadandlessweatherdependentvs

7、windandsolar.priceRatingOperatorsBuyFuxin;bearishoncoal–ShenhuaandYanzhouCoalFuxin816HKHK$2.68BuyDatang991HKHK$3.52NeutralOurtoppickisFuxinwithaPOofHK$3.90.WeexpectFuxintore-rateupwardstoHuaneng902HKHK$7.5Neutral11xour2015EforwardP/Evspeersat13-15xour2015EP/EasweestimateEDFEDFFPEUR25.24Neutr

8、alFuxin’sEPStoachievea23.8%CAGRover2013-16withcleanenergyrelatedCLP2HKHK$62.45U/Pearningstoaccountfor75%ofitstotalprofitby2016.WeremainstructurallyEquipmentmakersandheavymachinerySEG2727HKHK$2.92Noratingbearishonthecoalsectorexpectingtheover-capacitysituationtopersist.WehaveDongfang1072HKHK$

9、14.2NoratingUnderperformratingsonShenhua(HK$26.05;B-3-8)andYanzhouCoal(HK$8.18;B-Harbin1133HKHK$5.45Norating3-8)withPOsHK$17.60andHK$4.60,respectively.HollysysHOLIUSUS$17.0NoratingChina1stHeavy601106CHCNY2.28NoratingImpactonnationalthermalpowerplan