通胀如何欺诈股票投资者

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1、HowInflationSwindlestheEquityInvestor-byWarrenBuffett巴菲特：通货膨胀如何欺诈股票投资者2011-05-1816:25:44Thecentralprobleminthestockmarketisthatthereturnoncapitalhasn´trisenwithinflation.Itseemstobestuckat12percent.股票市场中最核心的问题是资本收益并没有随着通货膨胀而增加，将会有12%的收益流掉。byWarrenE.Buffett,FORTUNEMay1977作者：沃伦巴菲特，《财富》杂志1977年5月号

2、Itisnolongerasecretthatstocks,likebonds,dopoorlyinaninflationaryenvironment.Wehavebeeninsuchanenvironmentformostofthepastdecade,andithasindeedbeenatimeoftroublesforstocks.Butthereasonsforthestockmarket'sproblemsinthisperiodarestillimperfectlyunderstood.股票在通货膨胀环境下像债券一样表现不佳，这已经不是个秘密。在过去10年里，我们一直

3、处于这种通胀环境里。确实，这是一个股票遇到麻烦的时期。但是，在这段时间里造成股票市场难题的原因仍然没有被人们完全理解。Thereisnomysteryatallabouttheproblemsofbondholdersinaneraofinflation.Whenthevalueofthedollardeterioratesmonthaftermonth,asecuritywithincomeandprincipalpaymentsdenominatedinthosedollarsisn'tgoingtobeabigwinner.YouhardlyneedaPh.D.inecono

4、micstofigurethatoneout.在通胀时期债券持有者所遇到的问题一点也不神秘。当美元月复一月地贬值，一种本金和收入都用美元支付的证券不会是个大赢家。你根本不需要一个博士学位就能搞懂这个问题。Itwaslongassumedthatstocksweresomethingelse.Formanyyears,theconventionalwisdominsistedthatstockswereahedgeagainstinflation.Thepropositionwasrootedinthefactthatstocksarenotclaimsagainstdollars,

5、asbondsare,butrepresentownershipofcompanieswithproductivefacilities.These,investorsbelieved,wouldretaintheirValueinrealterms,letthepoliticiansprintmoneyastheymight.一直以来，人们认为股票是不同的。多年来，传统智慧坚持认为股票是对通货膨胀的对冲。这个说法来源于一个事实，那就是股票不像债券一样是对美元的所有权，而是对有着生产设施的公司的所有权。因此，股票投资者们相信，无论政客们如何印钞票，股票投资者仍然能保持他们投资的实际价

6、值。Andwhydidn'titturnbutthatway?Themainreason,Ibelieve,isthatstocks,ineconomicsubstance,arereallyverysimilartobonds.但是为什么实际上不是这么回事？主要原因在于：我认为股票在经济实质上非常类似于债券。Iknowthatthisbeliefwillseemeccentrictomanyinvestors.Theywillimmediatelyobservethatthereturnonabond(thecoupon)isfixed,whilethereturnonanequ

7、ityinvestment(thecompany'searnings)canvarysubstantiallyfromoneyeartoanother.Trueenough.Butanyonewhoexaminestheaggregatereturnsthathavebeenearnedbycompaniesduringthepostwaryearswilldiscoversomethingextraordinary:thereturnsonequityhaveinf