亚洲电动汽车电池：分岔市场中的赢家和输家

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1、20November2019GlobalEQUITIESAsiaEVbatteriesWinnersandlosersinabifurcatedmarketKeypointsRegionaldivergenceinEVsalesoutlook(ChinadisappointsvsexChinamorepositive)tobemorepronouncedin2020.KoreancellmakerstogainfromacceleratingEVsalesgrowthinEU;alsoenteringChinamarket,posingathrea

2、ttoChineseincumbents.Topsells:CATL(newinitiation)andBYD.Topbuys:LGChemandSDI.Source:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,November2019StockrecommendationsSignificantregionaldivergencein2020:Chinadisappoints,ex-CompanytickerRecCP(LC)TP(LC)Up/DnEVbatteriesChinamorepositiveSamsungSDI00640

3、0KSOP240,500360,00050%SKInnovation096770KSOP160,000210,00031%UnlikeinChina,whereNEVsalesof1.4munitsin2020onourestimates(vsthePanasonic6752JPOP990.41,27529%government’stargetof2munits)areexpectedtocontinuetodisappointtheLGChem051910KSOP316,000400,00027%CATL300750CHUP72.8760.3-17%

4、marketonsubsidiescuts(Fig14),significantfineswillinduceautomakerstoBYD1211HKUP3820.7-46%launchnewEVmodelsfrom2020,acceleratingEVsalesgrowthinEU.BasedonEVbatterymaterialsEcoproBM247540KSOP51,50077,00050%2018CO2emissionsdata,automakerswillfacemulti-billion-europenaltiesfromPCOheSm

5、CiOcal003670KSOP47,35070,00048%2021(seeKoreaEVbatteries-Whatdemandslowdown?LooktotheEU).GivenIljinmaterials020150KSOP38,25048,00025%thenewregulationwillcomeintoeffecton1January2020,weexpectEVsalesL&F066970KSUP21,35015,000-30%growthinEUtoacceleratefasterthaninChina,goingahead;EUs

6、alesgrewEVbatterymetalsPOSCO005490KSOP227,500278,00022%+76%YoYinSep2019,vsthe33%YoYdeclineinChinainSeptember2019.WesternAreasWSAAUOP2.943.622%IndependenceIGOAUOP6.157.420%InternationalcompaniesseekingtoenterintoChinamarket,posingGroupPilbaraMineralsPLSAUN0.30.327%athreattoChines

7、eincumbentsOrocobreOREAUUP2.632.2-16%SyrahSYRAUUP0.440.35-20%LGChemformedaJVwithGeelyandsignedasizeablecontractwithTesla.SKResourcesSource:MacquarieResearch.InnovationbuilttwoJVswithBAICMotorandEveEnergy(300014.CH,N/R,Sharepricesatclose18November2019China’slocalbatterymodule/pac

8、kmaker).LGChemseeksastabledemandsourcefrompartn