俄罗斯-宏观策略-俄罗斯宏观策略：供应过剩？

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1、MORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC+AlinaSlyusarchukECONOMISTAlina.Slyusarchuk@morganstanley.comMinDaiSTRATEGISTMin.Dai@morganstanley.comJamesKLordSTRATEGISTJames.Lord@morganstanley.comIDEA+44207677-6869+44207425-4381+44207677-3254Exhibit1：Foreignandlocalhold

2、ingsofOFZs(RUBbn)8.0003.0002,0007,0006.0005.0004.0001.0000Dec-i1Aug-12Apr-13Dec-13Aug-14Apr-15Dec-15Aug・16Apr-17Dec-17■ForeignersLocalBanks■OtherlocalinvestorsSource:HaverAnalytics,MorganStanleyResearchImportantnoteregardingeconomicsanctions:Russiaisacountr

3、ywhichisgenerallythesubjectoftargetedsanctionsprogramsadministeredorenforcedbytheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionand/orbyothercountries,whichtargetamongotherthingsRussia^banking,energy,defenseandintelligencesectors.TheU.S.couldinthefutureimposerestrictionsinre

4、lationtoRussiansovereigndebt.Anyreferencesinthisreporttodebtorequityinstrumentsortransactionsthatmaybecoveredbysuchsanctionsarestrictlyincidentaltogeneralcoverageoftheissuingcompanyasgermanetoitsoverallfinancialoutlook,andshouldnotbereadasrecommendingoradvi

5、singastoanyinvestmentactivitiesinrelationtosuchinstrumentsoronthebasisofsuchtransactions.Usersofthisreportaresolelyresponsibleforensuringthattheirinvestmentactivitiesinrelationtoanysanctionedcompaniesarecarriedoutincompliancewithapplicablesanctions.AlinaSly

6、usarchukisaneconomistandisnotopiningonfixedincomesecurities.Herviewsareclearlydelineated.Duetothenatureofthefixedincomemarket,theissuersorbondsoftheissuersrecommendedordiscussedinthisreportmaynotbecontinuouslyfollowed・Accordingly,investorsmustregardthisrepo

7、rtasprovidingstand-aloneanalysisandshouldnotexpectcontinuinganalysisoradditionalreportsrelatingtosuchissuersorbondsoftheissuers.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayha

8、veaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotheri