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1、摘要加拿大LNG进口的优先级。总体来看，加拿大在我国众多LNG进口来源中的竞争力尚可，推进中加LNG贸易将有利于我国LNG进口渠道的多元化。关键词：天然气；加拿大；LNG贸易；经济性分析；多标准决策IIAbstractAbstractWiththehugeandrapidlyincreasingdemandofimportnaturalgas,Chinahasalwaysbeenmakingeffortstodiversifyitsnaturalgasimports.Canadahasnumerousna
2、turalgasresourcesandmostlyexportedtotheUnitedStates.AftertheshalegasrevolutionintheUnitedStates,Canadahasbeenactivelypreparingtoexportitsliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)toAsia-Pacificmarket.Inthesecircumstances,promotingthenaturalgastradebetweenChinaandCanadacans
3、atisfytheinterestsofbothcountries.However,currentstudiesonthefeasibilityofnaturalgastradingbetweenChinaandCanadaarestillinneedofscientificityandsystematicness.Therefore,basedonsystemsanalysis,supplychainmodelingandmulti-criteriadecision-makingapproachs,th
4、ispapertriestostudythreekeyissuesofthefeasibilityofnaturalgastradebetweenChinaandCanada,including:(1)ThestrategicpositionofimportLNGinChina’sfuturenaturalgassupply.(2)TheengineeringeconomyofthenaturalgastradebetweenChinaandCanada.(3)ThecompetitivenessofCa
5、nadaamongseveralLNGimportsourcesofChina.Focusingontheseissues,thecontentsandmethodsofthispapermainlyincludethreeparts:(1)ToclearanddefinitethestrategicpositionofimportLNGinChina’sfuturenaturalgassupply,thispaperdevelopedsystemsanalysisonChina’snaturalgass
6、upply-demandbydrawinganenergyallocationdiagramofChina’snaturalgasin2012,andanalyzingthecurrentstatusandfuturetrandsoffourimpactfactorsincludingnaturalgasstrategyandpolicy,naturalgasdemand,naturalgasresourceavailabilityandnaturalgasinfrastructure.(2)Thispa
7、percalculatedtheLNGDES(deliveredex-ship)costfromCanadatoChina,andtheinternalrateofreturn(IRR)ofa25-yearLNGtradecontractbetweenCanadaandChina,bydevelopingstaticanddynamiceconomicmodelsoftheLNGsupplychainfromCanadatoChinabasedonengineeringeconomics.(3)Consi
8、deringfivedecision-makingcriteriaincludingLNGprice,naturalgasprovedreserves,politicstability,existingcapacityofLNGexportfacilitiesandtheaveragesailingdistance,thispaperIIIAbstractdevelopedamulti-criteriadesison-maki
