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1、31July2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchBanksAsiaPacificFinancialsStrategySECTORREVIEWAsianFinancialCrisis20yearson…who'snext…andThailandof1990svsChinaoftodayFigure1:CSBankingPressureIndexpointstostressinCN,IN,PH2.0AFCPeakGFCPeakMay-171.51.51.51.51.31.01.01.01.00.90.90.80.80.70.70.80.70.80
2、.50.60.60.50.60.50.50.40.50.30.20.10.20.00.00.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.4-1.0CNINKRTWIDTHMYPHSGHKAUJPSource:CEIC,Bloomberg,BIS,CreditSuisseestimates■ThedevastatingeffectofAFC.Foreigncurrencyborrowinggotbloatedasaresultofdevaluation,sharplyhigherratescrusheddomesticdemand.Two-thirdso
3、ftheborrowersinIndonesiaandhalfinThailanddefaulted.Stockmarketsplunged65-85%andbanks'P/Bmultiplesplummetedto0.2x!■AnyredflagsinAsia?OurBankingPressureIndexpointstostressintheusualsuspectsIndia,Chinaandalso,surprisinglyPhilippines(whichmaybeafalsealarm).TheBISmethodofdeviationofcredit-
4、to-GDPratiofromitslongtermtrendflashesChina,HongKongandSingapore.ThecorporateNPLsituationinIndiaremainsgrim,thoughChinahasimprovedlately.■Thailandof1990svsChinaoftoday.Thekeyparallelsare(a)artificiallylowcostofcapital,(b)mis-allocationofcapital,and(c)unsustainablyheavyrelianceoncapita
5、linvestment.WhilethisyearGDPgrowthhasbeenrobustonboththedomesticandexternalfront,theseposeriskstoChinanextyear,particularlywithgovernment'scrackdownonbankriskson-andoff-balancesheetbesidesitsnewfoundfocusonSOEaswellaslocalgovernmentdebt.In2018,weseetwoofthethreecomponentsofinvestment(
6、industrialandrealestate)softeningwhileinfrastructuremaybeaffectedbylocalgovtdebt.■Asmitigatingfactors,Chinahasfargreatercontrolondomesticgrowthandcostofcapitalgivenaclosedcapitalaccountandsurplusincurrentaccount.Onekeyfeaturetowatchwillbethe"newnormal"ofsingledigitM2growth,especiallyi
7、fChinaembarksondeleveragingattheeconomylevel.Net-net,wedonotseeacrashalaAFCbutbanks'areunlikelytobereratedonasustainablebasisuntilthereisclarityonriskandgrowthdynamics.31July2017FocuschartsFigure2:RealGDPgrowthplungedto-2%to-13%Figure3:Morethantwo-thirdsofloansinIndonesiaduringAFCvshi
8、ghsin
