资源描述：
《瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-新加坡市场策略：疼痛必须分担-2020.4.14.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、14April2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、SingaporeSingaporeMarketStrategyPainmustbesharedStrategyFigure1:WeexpectSingapore'srealGDPtodeclineby3.0%in2020EResearchAnalysts16.0%14.5%GeraldWong,CFA14.0%656212303712.0%9.8%9.0%9.0%9.0%gerald.wong@credit-suisse.com10.0%8.3%7.5%7.4
3、%8.0%5.7%6.3%6.0%3.9%4.5%4.5%4.8%3.9%4.3%3.0%3.2%3.4%4.0%1.9%2.0%0.1%0.7%0.0%-2.0%-1.1%-4.0%-2.2%-3.0%-6.0%1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020ERealGDPGrowthSource:MTI,CEIC,CreditSuisseestimatesEnteringadee
4、precession.WeestimateSingapore'sGDPtodeclineby3.0%in2020,withimpactontheaviation,hospitalityandretailsectorsalreadyevident,whilemanufacturingcouldseesignificantweaknessin2Q20.Withongoingescalated'Circuitbreaker'measuresandlackofautomaticstabilisers,wedonotexpectthegover
5、nmentsupportmeasuresworthS$60bntobeabletofullycushiontheeconomicimpact.Corporateearningsundersignificantpressure.Withreturnsata20-yearlowpriortotheCovid-19outbreak,weexpectmorecompaniestobeundergrowingstress.Moreimportantly,weexpectlargelistedcorporatestobeunderpressure
6、to‘sharesomeofthepain’toeasetheburdenonSMEsandhouseholds.Post-crisis,returnswilllikelybestructurallylowerduetotheneedtoaddressissuesarounddependenceonforeignworkers.Capitalrequirementswillbesignificant.Corporatenetgearinghasrisento0.60xfrom0.15xduringtheGFC,whichwilldri
7、vemorecapitalraising.CorporateactionisalsolikelytoaccelerateamongstTemasek-linkedcompanies.WhileliquiditymeasuresintroducedbyMAScouldhelpeasefundingneeds,relativelyhighcostofborrowingcouldlimittake-up.Assuch,non-performingloansshouldspikewithrisingbusinessclosures.Downs
8、ideriskstoearningsanddividends.Weexpect2020earningstodeclineby21%inabase-casescenarioofatroughin2Q20andgradualrecoveryin2H20,whileEPScoulddeclineby39%inabear-casescenario.Thiswilldrivedownsideriskstodividends,especiallyforbanks,REITsandcompaniesreceivingstatesupport.Wep
9、referstockstradingclosetotroughvaluation(Singtel,Keppel),beneficiariesofrisingvolatility(SGX)andstructuraltren
