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1、21April2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、ThailandThailandMarketStrategyTheinfrastructurebuildout:DiminishingreturnsStrategy
3、ThemeConnectionsSeriesFigure1:GrowthinBangkokmass-transitriders/kilometer/day—fallingpast5yearsTheCreditSuisseConnectionsSeriesleveragesourexcep
4、tionalbreadthofmacroandmicroresearchto(YoY%)20deliverincisivecross-sectorandcross-borderthematicinsightsforourclients.1510ResearchAnalysts5DanFineman06626146218dan.fineman@credit-suisse.com-5-10WarayutLuangmettakul-156626146214warayut.luangmettakul@credit-suisse.c
5、om-20AtulSethiSource:Companydata,StateRailwayofThailand(SRT),CreditSuisseestimates6626146211atul.sethi.2@credit-suisse.comFallingeconomicandfinancialreturns.WhiletheCOVID-19outbreakcoloursallinvestmentanalysesatpresent,weconsideritworthwhilesteppingbacktoconsidert
6、hestructuralstoryforinfrastructure,oneofthemostpopularthemesinThailandthepastyear.Webelievethatmostofthemegaprojectsnowunderconsiderationwillgeneratelowerreturns,withreducedeconomicgainsanddiminishedfinancialprofits.Wethinkthatimprovementstologisticsefficiencywill
7、disappoint,andanticipatesomeprojectscouldsuffernegativeNPVs.WeexpecttheCOVID-19crisistoslowexecutionasthegovernmentturnsitsfiscaleffortstosavingSMEsandprotectingworkers.Mass-transittodisappoint.WeexpectthebiggestdisappointmentforBangkokmass-transit.Whileconsensusv
8、iewsmass-transitasahigh-growthindustrystillinitsinfancy,weconsideritarapidlymaturingbusinessalreadysufferingfromfallingridership.Webelievethatthelowerattractivenessofremainingroutestobebuilt,competitionfromautos,anegativetaxandregulatorystructure,andmorecompetitiv
9、ebiddingwillpressureridershipanddepressreturnsonfutureinvestments.Wethinkthatridershipassumptionsinanalystmodelsarehighlyover-optimistic.Thelong-termimpactoftheCOVID-19outbreakishardtodefinepreciselybutislikelytobenegativetosomedegree.DowngradingBTSfromOutperformt
10、oUNDERPERFORM.Whilewehavebeenlong-termfansofBTS,wedowngradetoUNDERPERFORM,andkeepourUNDERPERFORMonBEM.BTSandBEMhaveoutperformedthemarketthepast12monthsb
