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1、第23小组：李壮壮（）陈舒然（）王晨（）王一婷（）毛志浩（）陈乃摇（）杨小倩（）杨光蕤（）推荐理由：11月21日18时30分，中国人民银行官方公布：自11月22日起下调金融机构人民币贷款和存款基准利率，即五年期以上房贷基准利率由原先的6.55%降为6.15%，相当于九四折利率优惠。这将助推房企翘尾跑量，提升房地产价格。央行降此次降息是央行自2012年7月时隔28个月后首次调整基准存贷率，并且是首次不对等的分别下调0.4个百分点的贷款基准利率和0.25个百分点的存款基准利率。降息对于房地产市场是最直接的刺激影响，一方面其相当于购房者在贷款的额度上利息上打了九四折，另一方面对于购房
2、的心理也是一个提振。然而房地产价格在中国的许多地区已经处于较高的水平了，且债务占GDP的比重也已经到达250%,中国是否会会重蹈日本“失落的十年”房地产价格急剧下降50%的覆辙,。这是我们应该关注的问题。ThePeople’sBankofChinaCovertoperationsNov22nd2014FromFTChina’scentralbankiswary（谨慎的、警惕的）ofeasingmonetarypolicy,butthatiswhattheeconomyneedsINBEIJING,acityofgrandiosegovernmentoffices,thecent
3、ralbankstandsoutforitsmodesty.Itsheadquarters（总部）aresmallanddated;plansforabig,gleamingextensionhavesofarcometonothing.Crampedastheyare,however,thesedigsareanaptsymbolofthecentralbank’srestraint.FornearlyfouryearsthePeople’sBankofChina(PBOC)[1]hasclassifiedmonetarypolicyas“prudent”[2],whichi
4、ssupposedlyaneutralstance—nottootight,nottooloose.Inrealityithasbeentightening,tocoolanoverheatedpropertymarketandslowthealarmingaccretionofdebt[3].Atthesametime,thecentralbankhaschippedawayatvestigesofcentralplanningwithchangestoitscurrencyandinterest-rateregimes.ThePBOCisfarfromindependent
5、,butunderZhouXiaochuan,itsgovernorsince2002,ithasacquiredrealclout（影响力）asithasdoggedlypursueditsdualobjectivesofrestraintandreform[4].Thesetwoaimswerecomplementaryin2011,whenthecentralbankfirstembracedprudence.Nominalgrowth（名义增长）wasstillrunningat18%,aheadypaceevenbyChinesestandards;slowingbr
6、eakneckinvestmentwasessential.Yettimeshavechanged.Theeconomyisnowontrackforitsweakestyearsince1990,slidingbelowthegovernment’sgoalof7.5%growth;inflationisatafive-yearlow,nearlytwopercentagepointsbelowtheofficial3.5%target.Thecentralbankfacesmountingcallstolowerrates.Butadviserssayitfearssend
7、ingthewrongmessage:byeasing,itmightsignalanendtorestraintand,byextension,toreform.（量化宽松的实行，可能标志着治理的结束；如果再引伸一下，就是金融改革的结束。）Thecentralbank’sanswertothisdilemmahasbeentoloosenmonetarypolicy,butinacovertfashion.Itlentthestate-ownedChinaDevelopmentBankon
