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1、THEJOURNALOFFINANCE•VOL.LIX,NO.3•JUNE2004ACateringTheoryofDividendsMALCOLMBAKERandJEFFREYWURGLER∗ABSTRACTWeproposethatthedecisiontopaydividendsisdrivenbyprevailinginvestordemandfordividendpayers.Managerscatertoinvestorsbypayingdividendswheninvestorsputastockpricepremiumonpayers,andbyn
2、otpayingwheninvestorsprefernonpay-ers.Totestthisprediction,weconstructfourstockprice-basedmeasuresofinvestordemandfordividendpayers.Byeachmeasure,nonpayerstendtoinitiatedividendswhendemandishigh.Bysomemeasures,payerstendtoomitdividendswhendemandislow.Furtheranalysisconfirmsthatthesere
3、sultsarebetterexplainedbycateringthanothertheoriesofdividends.MILLERANDMODIGILIANI(1961)provethatdividendpolicyisirrelevanttosharevalueinperfectandefficientcapitalmarkets.Inthatsetup,norationalinvestorhasapreferencebetweendividendsandcapitalgains.Arbitrageensuresthatdividendpolicyisir
4、relevant.Forty-plusyearslater,theonlyassumptioninthisproofthathasnotbeenthoroughlyscrutinizedismarketefficiency.1Inthispaper,weargueforaviewofdividendsthatrelaxesthisassumption.Ithasthreebasicingredients.First,foreitherpsychologicalorinstitutionalreasons,someinvestorshaveanunin-formed
5、andperhapstime-varyingdemandfordividend-payingstocks.Second,arbitragefailstopreventthisdemandfromdrivingapartthepricesofpayersandnonpayers.Third,managersrationallycatertoinvestordemand—theypaydividendswheninvestorsputhigherpricesonpayers,andtheydonotpaywheninvestorsprefernonpayers.Wef
6、ormalizethiscateringviewofdividendsinasimplemodel.Thepredictionofthemodelthatwefocusoninourempiricalworkisthatthepropensitytopaydividendsdependsonadividendpremium(orsometimes∗BakerisfromHarvardBusinessSchoolandNBER;andWurglerisfromtheNYUSternSchoolofBusiness.Forhelpfulcomments,wethank
7、theeditor,ananonymousreferee,ViralAcharya,RajAggarwal,KatharineBaker,AlonBrav,RandyCohen,GeneD’Avolio,SteveFiglewski,XavierGabaix,PaulGompers,FlorianHeider,LaurieHodrick,DirkJenter,KoseJohn,SteveKaplan,JohnLong,AsisMartinez-Jerez,ColinMayer,RandallMorck,HolgerMueller,SendhilMullainath
8、an,El
