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1、TheDepressingEffectofInternalMigrationBarriersonChina’sEconomyJune2013ZhimingLIAOGraduateSchoolofEconomics,theUniversityofTokyoAbstract:China’seconomicgrowthinthepastthreedecadescanbecalledoutstandingbyalmostanystandard,andwithoutdoubtitbenefitsalotfromitslargepopulation
2、andinternalmigration.Butformanydecades,Chinahasbeenrestrictingthefreeflowoflaborfromruraltourbanareasbyonewayoranotherlikethehouseholdregistrationsysteminplace.Usingastandardtwo-sectorneoclassicalgrowthmodel,thispapershowsthoseinternalmigrationbarriersdeterioratetherural
3、-urbanincomedisparity,distortthepriceofagriculturalgoodsandtheallocationofcapitalbetweenruralandurbansectors,andsignificantlyundermineChina’seconomysizethroughdistortingtherural-urbanincomeratiothresholdneededtomotivatepeopletomove.Keywords:internalmigration,barrier,econ
4、omicgrowth,ChinaIamgratefultoProfessorKosukeAoki,mymasterthesissupervisor,forhisgreatinstructionandhelpfulcomments.IthankYukiYaoforhelpwithMATLABcodding.Allerrorsaremineandanycommentiswelcome.Email:chiminhlyao@gmail.com.I.IntroductionChina’seconomyhasbeengrowingatdoubled
5、igitsformostofthepastthreedecadessince1978whenitstartedtoopenuptotheworld,eventhoughthegrowthraterecentlysloweddownto7or8percent.Threedecades’robusteconomicgrowthhasliftedhundredsofmillionsofpeopleoutofpovertyandmadeChinaoneofthelargesteconomiesintheworld,secondonlytothe
6、US;itovertookJapanasthesecondbiggesteconomyin2010.What’smore,mosteconomistspredictChinawillsurpasstheUSintermsofthesizeofeconomywithinthenexttwodecades,say,Ito(2010)thinksChinaisexpectedtoovertakeAmericasometimeinthemid-2020s,theEconomistpredictsthattohappenby2018,whichi
7、slessthan6yearsfromnow,andIMFevenmadeamoreaggressivepredictionthatitforecastsChinatobecometheNo.1economybypurchasingpowerparitymeasurein2016.Asthemostpopulouscountryintheworld,China’seconomicgrowthbenefitsalotfromitshugepopulationandinternalmigration.Demographicdividendh
8、ascontributedto15-25percentofeconomicgrowthand5-21percentofsavingsratesince1978(CaiandWang,2005).Andint
