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1、InterpretationoftheUnstructuredBargainingExperiments•Rothetal.:Bargainersappeartomakestrategicuseofexisting(sociallydetermined?)“credible”divisions.(There’sclearlyanotionofa“fair”dealoutthere,butyoucanpredictwhothinksequalprobabilitiesarefair,andwhoequalexpectedvalue,basedo
2、nwhattheirprizesare…*•Harrison&McCabe:allagreementsareequilibriainsuchgames,sonoextra-game-theoreticfactorsneedbeinvoked…thinkabouttherelationtocoordination,focalpoints…(Schelling…)•Guth:offersanentirelynon-game-theoreticexplanation.S’sareconstrainedtousewhicheveristhe“dom
3、inantrewardstandard”availabletothem.Designnote:theseunstructuredbinarylotterygamesaren’tideallysuitedfordistinguishingamongthesehypotheses–theyweredesignedtoletusknowwhattheorieslikeNash’spredicted.Sequentialbargaininggameswillallowustoobserveindividualdecisionsmoreclearly.
4、1SequentialBargainingwithfinitehorizon(followingtheinfinitehorizonmodelofRubinstein,1982)1.(x,1-x)2.(x,1-x)Accept(x’,1-x’)Accept1.(δ1x’,δ2(1-x’))Accept(τ-1)(τ-1)(δ1x,δ2(1-x))Reject(0,0)2AnInitialExchangeofViews:ShrinkingPieExperimentsGuthetal.’82:Ultimatum(1-period)gamesP.E
5、.offer:0%Meanobservedoffer:30%Interpretation:“fairness”Binmoreetal.’85:2-periodgamesP.E.offer:25%Modalobservedoffer:game150%game225%Interpretation:1.“experience”2.“1-periodspecialcase”Guth&Teitz’87:2-periodgamesA.P.E.offer:10%Meanobservedoffer:game1-24%game2-33%B.P.E.offer:
6、90%Meanobservedoffer:game1-30%game2-41%Interpretation:1.“notexperience”2.“hierarchialdecisionmaking:ifequilibriumareextremetheyareignored”Neelinetal.’88:2-,3-,5-periodgamesModaloffer:P.E.of2periodgamesInterpretation:“boundedrationality”3UltimatumgamesSeveraldirectionshavebe
7、enpursued:1.Are1-periodgames“special”?a.Explorationofmulti-period,alternatingoffergames2.Isthemotivationbehindfairlyequalsplits“fairness”?a.Dictatorgames3.Isthephenomenon(oflargeoffers)robust?4Roth,A.E.,Prasnikar,V.,Okuno-Fujiwara,M.,andZamir,S."BargainingandMarketBehaviori
8、nJerusalem,Ljubljana,Pittsburgh,andTokyo:AnExperimentalStudy,"AmericanEconomicRevi
