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1、CHAPTER40MANAGINGGEOPOLITICALRISKS∗MarvinZonisHumiliation,fear,andmistrustareelementalhumanemotionsthataredrivingtheresponsesofseveralnationstocurrenteconomicandpoliticalconditions.Byunder-standingsuchessentialpsychologicalprocesses,policymakersandinvestorscanbegintoanticipateandma
2、nagethegeopoliticalriskscurrentlyfacingtheglobaleconomy.Nationsaroundtheworldarebeingbuffetedbythefalloutfromthecurrenteconomicrecession,andtheirnegativereactionstothestrainarebeingaggravatedbydeeplyheldresent-ments.Myintention,therefore,istoidentifythepsychologicalprocessesinvolve
3、d,describehowtheyaremanifestingthemselvesinthepoliticalandeconomiclivesofvariouscountries,andofferinsightsintoappropriateresponses.PROCESSESDRIVINGRISKThreepsychologicalprocessesareexacerbatingdifficultiesfortheworldeconomy:humilia-tion,fear,andmistrust.WhenIspeakofhumiliation,Imean
4、feelingunderappreciated,diminished,ordisre-spected.Unfortunately,eachofushasexperiencedhumiliationinsomeway,andthemostcommonpsychologicalresponseisanger.Nationsandculturalgroupsexperiencethesamething.Rightnowbillionsofpeopleallovertheworldarefeelinganger,evenrage,becauseofthevaryin
5、gdegreesofdiminishmentandhumiliationtheyarefeeling.Andthatragewillhaveanimportantpoliticalroleincountryaftercountry.Certainly,wehavealreadyseenitsresultsintheUnitedStates.Forexample,asmuchasIadmirethepoliticalandleadershipskillsof∗ReprintedfromCFAInstituteConferenceProceedingsQuart
6、erly(September2009):22–29.Thispre-sentationcomesfromthe2009CFAInstituteAnnualConferenceheldinOrlando,Florida,on26–29April2009.573CH040.indd5738/28/108:45:17PM574PartIII:ManagingRisk—GlobalRiskBarackObama,IthinkatelephonepolecouldhavebeatenJohnMcCaininNovember2008becauseAmericanswer
7、esoangryatthepartyinpower.Inaddition,peoplearoundtheworldareafraidbecausetheyhavelosttheirjobsormaylosetheirjobs.Theyareafraidbecausetheirassetshavedeclinedprecipitously,andtheyfeartheymaynotbeabletoaffordretirement;thosearethefearsofthedevelopedworld.Inemergingmarketnations,people
8、arefrightenedbecausetheyca
