j.p. 摩根-全球-公用事业行业-全球公用事业2018年展望

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1、Completed14Dec201709:45PMGMTDisseminated15Dec201712:15AMGMTGlobalEquityResearch15December2017J.P.MorganGlobalUtilitiesGlobalUtilities-2018OutlookThisreportoutlinesthekeythemesandbestopportunitiesforglobalutilitiesEuropeanUtilitiesin2018.Weexpect2018tobeayearimpactedbyrisinginterestratesandACChrist

2、opherLaybuttsubtletaxreforminNorthAmerica,risingcarbonpricesinEurope,and(44-20)7742-6718elevatedpoliticalandregulatoryriskintheUK,whiletheintenseM&Achristopher.r.laybutt@jpmorgan.comenvironmentandprivatizationagendacontinuesinLatAm.WerecommendBloombergJPMALAYBUTTstockswithsector-specificearnin

3、gscatalysts,suchashighertariffsandJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcinfrastructurespendinginAsiaandtheresumptionofnuclearpoweroperationACJavierGarridoinJapan.Wehighlightourkeyrecommendationsonpage4thatwillplaywell(34-91)516-1557onthesethemes.javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAGARRIDONorthAmerica:

4、Weexpect2018tobearesetyearasthesectorfacestheJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcprospectofrisinglong-terminterestrates,subtletaxreformrisk,andmanyACnamesaredealingwithincreasedcompany-specificrisk.ThoughwehaveVincentAyral(44-20)7134-5716seenlessinterestratetorelativevaluecorrelationthisquarter,regulatedvincen

5、t.jm.ayral@jpmorgan.comutilitiesappearovervaluedversusthecurrent10yryieldandwouldBloombergJPMAAYRALunderperform~6%intoYE'18atJPM’s2.7%forecast,accordingtoourJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplccalculations.Wepreferrisingdividend,lessregulatedandvaluestoriesbutACChristopherTurnureseetheneedtobeespeciallysel

6、ectiveamidanincreasingnumberof(1-212)622-5696discountednames.christopher.turnure@jpmorgan.comEurope:Whilethecarbonmarketshouldstayoversuppliedin2018andBloombergJPMATURNUREcarbonpricesmaystayweakduringH1,weseegradualpricinginoftheJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCACfuturetradingconditionsthroughoutH22018

7、.TheexpectationofhigherElaineWuCO2pricesshouldpushEuropeanpowerpriceforwardsup.Whilean(852)2800-8575environmentofmonetarypolicytighteningisnotthemostattractiveelaine.wu@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAEWUenvironment