德银-新兴市场-企业信贷-新兴市场监测：11月价格活动

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCorporateCreditDateFinancials4December2017HYMultiSectorHimanshuPorwalResearchAnalystIGMultiSector(+44)2075474234himanshu.porwal@db.comCEEMEARVmonitor-NovemberpriceactionCEEMEAcorporatecreditspreadswidenedby5bpsinNovember,breaking

2、thesequenceoftwoconsecutivemonthlyspreadtighteninginSeptemberandOctober.ThiscomesinlinewithourexpectationashighlightedinourOctoberRVmonitorthatgoingintothecloseoftheyear,thereispotentialforspreadwideningonthebackofmacroheadwindsandidiosyncraticrisks.CEEMEAcreditalsounder

3、performedcomparedtotheoverallEMcorporateindexwhichwidenedby2bpsinOct.TheweaknessinTurkishandMiddleEasterncorporatesseemstohaveweighedonthisunderperformanceasgeo-politicalFigure1:CEEMEACorporates-noiseresurfacedintheregionandTurkishcreditscameunderpressureowingtoLira’scon

4、tinueddepreciationandgrowingconcernsofpotentialfinesforMonthlyPerformanceTurkishbanksbytheUSauthorities.RecallthatinlateOctober,welowered201415ourBuyrecommendationsonseveralTurkishbankbondstoHoldontheback10oftheserisks.Goingahead,asweinchtowardstheendof2017,wewillbe55533

5、takingstockofbroaderfundamentalandtechnicaltrendsforCEEMEAcredits0acrossdifferentsectorsandregionsandtargettopublishour2018outlookin-5-2-5-5-10thecomingdays/weeks.angeinspread,bpsCh-15-13KeyobservationsofmonthlypriceactioninNovember-20-20Regionwise,CEEMEAunderperformedo

6、verallEMcorporatesandLatAM-25-22corporateswhichsawspreadmovementof+2bpsand-7bpsrespectively.Asiancreditspreadswidenedthemost(8bps).Source:DeutscheBank,Markit,asof30-Nov-2017Ratingwise,CEEMEAIGunderperformed(10bpswidening)comparedtoHYnameswhichwereunchangedmonthonmonth.F

7、igure2:Out/UnderperformersCountrywise,TurkishandMiddleEasterncorporatespreadssawspreadwidening(seefigure5).RussianandSouthAfricacreditsoutperformedtheWeightedavg.sectorOutperformers:bondswithUnderperformers:bondswithleastSectorSpreadChange(bps)highestSpreadtigheningSpre

8、adtightening/highestwideningmostwithaggregatespreadtighteningof15bpsand16bpsrespectively.Utilities1ISRE