德银-新兴市场-利率与信贷-新兴市场月报：依然强劲

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateCEEMEAForeignExchange16October2017RatesCreditElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistEMEAMonthly:Stillrobust(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comKubilayOzturkEMbusinesscycles-growth,inflation,andpolicies-areontrackandunlikelyChiefEconomisttob

2、edisruptedbyFedrepricing,inourview.Webecamemorecautiousin(+90)2123170124recentmonthsbecauseofmarketrisk-rewardnoteconomics.AsfarasEMpullkubilay.ozturk@db.comfactorsareconcernedtheupturnseemsintactamidcontainedinflationandwithsurprisinglygooddemand(andprices)forEMexports.WhileidiosyncraticDaneleeM

3、asiaimbalancespreventedastrongerpass-throughtoEMin2013-15weexpectastrongerboostthistimearoundonEM’simprovedconditions.Economist(+27)11775-7267InEEMEAweexpectgrowthtocontinuetoberobust,whileinflationisnotyetdanelee.masia@db.comathreatinmostcountrieswithanexceptionofTurkey.Wecontinuetoseepositivegr

4、owthmomentumacrosstheregion,withCEEaheadofthepack,HongtaoJiangfollowedbyTurkeyandRussia,butseeriskoffurtherdisappointmentsinStrategistSouthAfrica.Turkey’smuchfearedpoliticalriskmaterializedintheformofthe(+1)212250-2524diplomaticrowwiththeUS,whichwebelieverequiresclosemonitoringgivenhongtao.jiang@

5、db.compotentialadverseimpactonTurkishassetsincaseoffurtherescalation.Lira’sunderperformance,ifcontinued,wouldmakeusevenmoreworriedregardingChristianWietoskainflationoutlookandinturnmonetarypolicynormalizationcouldbepostponedStrategistbeyondQ12018.InRussia,weexpectinflationtocontinuetosurpriseonth

6、e(+44)20754-52424downsidefallingtolessthan3%byend-2017.InSouthAfrica,inflationmaychristian.wietoska@db.comstillsurprisetothedownsideintheneartermandwehaverevisedourterminalrateforecastfor2017slightlyto6.75%from7.00%,inreactiontothedovishGautamKalani,PhDInflationReport.Weexpectnoratehikesin2018for

7、now.However,weStrategistremainconcernedaboutthepossiblecreditratingdowngradeonthebackof(+44)20754-57066fiscalslippagesandpoliticalrepercussionsoftheANCDecemberconference.gautam.kalani@db.comInCEE,strongdomesticdemandsu