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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinesebanks12December2017Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFAJackyZuoNov2017bankingdata–NobreatherResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255takenindeleveraginghans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.comCredita
2、ndbankingassetgrowthslowedfurther;westillpreferbigbanksEdwardDuNewloansofRmb1.12trandTSFofRmb1.6trnotablybeatconsensusforNovResearchAssociate2017,butwedonotseethisasaturningpointformonetarypolicy.Indeed,(+852)22036185adjustingformunicipalbondsandequityraising,systemcreditgr
3、owthslowededward.du@db.comfurtherto14.4%yoyfrom14.9%thepriormonth(Fig.1).Lookingatbanks’balancesheets,assetgrowthfellbelow10%yoy(Fig.6),draggedbyshrinkageToppicksininterbankfunding(Fig.9).Wearelikelyatmosthalfwaythroughthefinancialdeleveragingprocess.Newregulationsonassetma
4、nagementandBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.76Buyliquidityriskswillbephasedinandmoreruleswillprobablyfollow.InatighterAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.60Buyandmorecoordinatedregulatoryenvironment,westillpreferbigbanks.ChinaConstructionBankBuy(0939.HK),HKD6.69Slowestcreditgrowthsince
5、Aug2015;M2growthreboundedSource:DeutscheBankAdjustedcreditgrowth(includingmunicipalbonds)of14.4%yoythismonthwastheslowestinthepast27months.Lookingatthebreakdown,loanCompaniesFeaturedgrowthacceleratedto13.3%yoy(vs.13.0%inOct),whileshadowbankingICBC(1398.HK),HKD5.96Buyandcorp
6、oratebondfinancingremainedmuted.ShadowbankingcomponentsChinaConstructionBankBuy(entrustedloans,trustloansandundiscountedbills)madeuponly11%ofNov(0939.HK),HKD6.69Agri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.60BuyTSFversus22%in1H17.Thissuggeststhatfollowingaseriesoftighteningrules,banksare
7、bringingoff-BSshadowbankingintoon-BS.Byde-leveringBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.76Buyshadowcreditandcuttingofffinancinglayers,M2growthactuallyreboundedBankofCommunicationsBuy(3328.HK),HKD5.72fromahistoricallowof8.8%yoyinOctto9.1%yoy.WecalculateM2/GDPChinaMerchantsBankHoldstayed
8、flattishmomat207%versusarecordhighof210%inMarch.(3968.HK),HKD31.20Whoisborrowing?C
