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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaCorporateCreditDateChinaFinancials14November2017ViacheslavShilin,MBAResearchAnalystAsiaCredit(+65)64235726viacheslav.shilin@db.comChinesebanks:bigvs.small-divergentYuvarajBholeResearchAssociatefundamentals&tradeideasyuvaraj.bhole@db.comInthisrepo
2、rt,weanalysethemaintrendsdisplayedbyChinesebanksintheirfundamentalperformanceYTDandvs.FY16andFY15timeperiodsandhighlightthedifferencesinunderlyingriskprofilesbetweenlargerentitiesandtheirsmaller-sizedpeers.Itisunsurprising,inourview,thatourfindingsindicatethatthefirstsignsofec
3、onomicstabilisationinChinafornowareevidentonlyonthebalancesheetsandP&Lsofthelargerentitiesinthecountry,whilethesmalleronescontinuetobechallengedbyhighercompetitionforliquidity(incl.customerdeposits),theneedtounderwritehigher-riskassets(incl.“shadowbanking”products)tosustainear
4、ningsandgrowthmomentums,andfaceeverincreasingpressureoncapitalbase.Acrossthecreditmetricsusedintheanalysis,wefoundCITICLtd(incl.ChinaCITICBank)andBankofCommunicationstobemostchallengedamongstthelargerChinesebanks,whileChinaConstructionBankdisplayedrelativelymoreadequateresults
5、inthispeergroup.Whenitcomestothesmallerpeers,HuishangandZheshangbanksdisappointthemost,whileChinaEverbrightBankappearsrelativelymorestable.Near-termvalueisin7-10Ytenorofthecurve.PreferT2bondsandAMCsWeacknowledgethepreferencefortheshorter-datedbondinChina’sfinancialRiskstoourre
6、commendations:universewherebymanyinvestorshavechosena“valuepreservation”tacticintotheyearend.However,on3-6monthshorizon,wedorecommendBankofChina:upside-Chinapostingainvestorstoshiftfocusintothe7-10Ybuckettopickupadditionalspread,strongereconomicgrowththantheespeciallygiventheu
7、nderperformanceofthesebondsasoflate(Fig.1-2).Inexpectedmoderatingtrend,ChinabanksthelongerendofChinafinancials’curves,T2bondshavebeenreportstrongerassetqualityandunderperformingsincearoundApr-17.ThedifferentialofthelongendT2curvewithequivalentdatedAMCsbondshaswidenedfrom25bpin
8、Apr2017to30-capitalizationtrends,PRCGovernment35bppresently.S
