汇丰银行-全球股票市场-全球股票市场数据监测-20170827-global equity data monitor materials may have further to go-hsbc

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1、27August2017GlobalEquityDataMonitorEQUITYSTRATEGYGLOBALMaterialsmayhavefurthertogoHighlightsofthedataHSBCCOUNTRYSTRATEGYALLOCATIONMetalspriceshavesurgedinrecentweeks,upc10%inaggregate.Therecoveryhasbeenbroad-based,reflectingtheongoinggrowthinChinesedemand,theimpactofaCo

2、untry/RegionHSBCConsensusweakerUSD,andacollectionofspecificsupplysidefactors(seeBloxham,Metalspricessurging).TheglobalMaterialssectorhasoutperformedthewidermarketbyUSOverweightOverweightUKNeutralUnderweight6%sincemid-June.Weexpectthistocontinue,andareoverweight;itisintheEuro

3、zoneUnderweightUnderweightattractivetop-leftquadrantofourRadarframework–aboveaveragedynamics,butJapanUnderweightUnderweightsubduedinvestorsentiment(page4).Valuationremainsattractive;onaforwardPEEMOverweightUnderweightof15.3xvsaglobalaverage16x,andthisdiscountwidensonatrend-a

4、djustedbasis-BrazilOverweightUnderweight-ChinaOverweightOverweight(chartbelow).Earningsmomentumhassoftenedinrecentmonths,butrevisions-IndiaUnderweightUnderweighthavestabilizedatthemarketaverage,andshouldseeaboostfromtheriseinmetal-RussiaOverweightUnderweightprices(page56),an

5、dearningsaredepressed:41%frompeakvs2%forACWorld.Morebroadly,countryindiceswiththeheaviestcommoditiesexposureareRussiaKeyViews(64%ofindex),Canada(33%),Poland(33%),Thailand(32%)vsaglobalaverageOverweightUSandEM12%weight(page16).OverweightIndustrials,Commodities,Utilities,Stapl

6、es*Note:ConsensusratingsareEPFRglobalfundsactiveweightscomparedtohistory,wherepositiveZscoreisoverweightandnegativeZscoreisunderweightKeydatapointsSource:HSBC,EPFRGlobal.1.Globalequitieswerebroadlyflatlastweek(to24Aug)withEM(+2%)outperforming,ledbyBrazil(+5%),andJapanthebigg

7、estlaggard(-1%)(page8).BenLaidler2.JacksonHoleEconomicSymposiumlastweeksawdovishspeechesfromJanetGlobalEquityStrategistYellenandMarioDraghi.Thispolicymakercautionsupportsabove-averageP/EHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.ben.m.laidler@us.hsbc.commultiples,andourcontrarianpositiveviewonl

8、ongdurationsectors.GlobalP/E’s+12125253460haverisen7%YTDvsanaverage8%contra