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1、Economics-DataReactions14August2017IndiaPranjulBhandariInflationrisesfromahistoriclowChiefEconomist,IndiaHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalAsexpected,bothCPIandWPIinflationrosequicklyinJuly,ledprimarilybyrisingMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedvegetableprices.Butthisisnottheentirestory.Coreinflationtick
2、edupafter+912222681841pranjul.bhandari@hsbc.co.inmoderatingforthreestraightmonths.Muchofthiscanbeattributedtopolicychanges,namelytheimplementationoftheHousingRentAllowanceandtheinitialimpactoftheGoodsandServicesTaxregime.LookingthroughtheshorttermAayushinoise,weexpectunderlyinginflationt
3、orestatthe4%ballpark,whichalsoChaudharyhappenstobeRBI'sinflationtarget.WeexpecttheRBItobeonaprolongedpausefromhereonwardswithrisksofa25bpsratecutatyearendifCPIinflationAssociateHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalundershootsthe4%targetbyacomfortablemargin.Markets(India)PrivateLimited+912222682761aay
4、ushi.chaudhary@hsbc.co.inFacts4JulyConsumerPriceIndexroseto2.4%y-o-y,higherthanthe1.5%printinJune,aboveViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.commarketexpectationof2.1%butbroadlyinlinewithourforecastsof2.3%.4Theincreasewasprimarilyandexpectedlyledbyfoodinflation(up0.4%y-o-yver
5、sus-1.2%Issuerofreportlastmonth).Thehousingindexalsoroseto5%y-o-y,from4.7%inJune,partlyreflectingone-HSBCSecuritiesandCapitalsixthoftheimpactofthecentre’sSeventhPayCommissionHousingRentAllowance(HRA)Markets(India)PrivateLimitedimplementation.Coreinflation(exfood,fuel,petrolanddiesel)rose
6、4.1%y-o-yfrom3.9%inDisclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththeJune.disclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosure4Meanwhile,theJulyWholesalePriceIndexinflationcameinat1.9%y-o-y,strongerthan0.9%appendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,inJune.Thisagain,wasprimarilyledbyfoodprices(2.1%y-o
7、-yversus-1.3%y-o-ylastwhichformspartofitmonth)whilecoreinflationinchedupmarginallyaswell(2.2%y-o-yversus2.1%lastmonth).ImplicationsAnexpecteduptick,postthedramaticfallAsexpected,CPIinflationrosequicklyto2.4%,afterplummetingtoahistoriclowof1.5%inJune.Lookingacrossthesubcom
