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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaCreditDate31January2018HarshAgarwal,CFAResearchAnalystAsiaCreditMonthly(+65)64236967harsh.agarwal@db.comAirpocketViacheslavShilin,MBAResearchAnalyst(+65)64235726viacheslav.shilin@db.comWhatastart!VikashAgarwalla,CFAInvestorsacrossassetclassescouldn’thaveaskedforabetter
2、starttotheyear.Almostalltheconsensusviewshaveplayedout,butatareallyfastpace,ResearchAnalysthenceitisnotsurprisingthatwearehittinganairpocket.Weentered2018(+65)64235718withaconstructiveviewoncreditspreads.However,therallyYTDhasbeenvikash.agarwalla@db.comstrongerthanourexpectation.Markitindexhastighte
3、nedaround12bpinJanuaryversusourfullyearforecastof10bp.WhilewearerevisitingourKarenKwan,MBAforecastsandhavebeenselectivelytrimmingdownourBuyrecommendations,ResearchAnalystwegenerallyremainpositiveandwillbebuyersofselectednamesonany(+65)64235387meaningfulweakness.Wedon’tforeseetheongoingsoftpatchtolas
4、tverykaren.kwan@db.comlong.FrancoLamAsdetailedinourOutlookreport,asanguinemacroenvironmentissupportiveResearchAnalystofspreads,evenwithgraduallyrisingUSTyields,especiallyifequitiesarealso(+852)22036226headinghigher.ThoughS&P500hascorrected1.8%fromthehighs,it’sstillfranco.lam@db.comup5.6%fortheyear.8
5、2%ofthe169UScompaniesthathavereported1QresultshavebeatenEPSestimates.Oureconomicsteambelievesthat3.5%isperhapsthemagicmarkfor10yrUSTwherethecorrelationbetweenhigherratesandhigherequitiesbreaksdown.Thepaceofriseinrateswillobviouslyalsomatter.Aquickriseaswitnessedrecentlymighthurtconfidenceinthenearte
6、rm.Fundamentally,defaultratesshouldstaylowandtheupcomingresultsseasonshouldbetestamenttoourthesisofbalancesheetdeleveraging.Technically,supplycouldtakeabitofabreatherwiththeupcomingChineseNewYearholidaysandthentheearningsblackout.FundinflowscouldalsocontinuewithapositivebackdropforEMassetsamidstweak
7、eningUSDandhighercommodities.Keyrisksremainthesameinourview–sharpincreaseinrateswithinashortperiod,tradewars,consensuspositioning,geopolitics,etc.InthisACM,weconductadetailedreviewofthemarketperforman
