从全球经济大视角看中国政策微调（china's policy fine-tuning from a global economic perspective）

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1、从全球经济大视角看中国政策微调（China'spolicyfine-tuningfromaglobaleconomicperspective）China'spolicyfine-tuningfromaglobaleconomicperspectiveChina'smacroeconomicinformationnetwork,October28,2011Inthecontextofthegradualweakeningoftheglobalinflationwarning,China'sinflationratehasfallenforthet

2、woconsecutivemonth,butthelong-termsituationisstillnotoptimistic,inflationcenterwillrise.So,whilethetemporaryupturnhasbroughtrespite,inflationshouldbeaprotractedwar.Ifthe"fine-tuning"isunderstoodas"bigturn",obviouslymisreading.Examinethecurrentsituationandthefutureofeconomica

3、ndfinancialChinesefromaglobalperspective,inmyopinion,monetarypolicychangeinformationChinahigh-risepassedout,"theseeightwordsareappropriateandtimelyfine-tuningcangetfurtherinterpretation:becauseof"danger"and"tone",called"timely";""willthe"micro",called"moderate".Sincethebirth

4、ofthecentralbank,thepolicyonthemenuofthetwomainitemsiseconomicgrowthandpricestability,althoughyoucannothaveitbothways,butpolicymakersalwaysseektrendsinthebalancebetweenthetwo,eachpolicy,alwayscorrespondstotheimbalanceofbothendsoftheseesaw.This,ofcourse,isnoexception.Lookfrom

5、theglobalChinese,whiletherelativelyweakergrowthmomentum,theothersideisalong-termupwardinflationcentral,fine-tuningisarationalchoiceoftheflowoftwo-phasebalance.Ontheonehand,thecomparisonofthestructureoftheglobaleconomyandChina'seconomyshowsthattheadjustmentofChina'smonetarypo

6、licyisimperative.Tobespecific,the"bigrecession"oftheglobaleconomyisabitofashock,butthe"greatstagnation"seemsdifficulttoavoid.Aftertheseveredeteriorationofthesummer,theEuropeandebtcrisishasbeenabitflatthismonth,andFrance'spositiveperformanceinhelpingGreecehascalmedthemarket.A

7、sexpectedbeforethisistoopessimistic,aseriesofnewreleaseddataalsoshow"unexpected"features,suchasthecoreyesterdayreleased5.7%U.S.newhomesalesQoQand1.7%durablegoodsordersincreased,significantlybetterthanexpected.However,itisworthnotingthat,forsometime,theeconomicsituationimprov

8、edonlyshort-termphenomenon,thedebtcrisisinthestormafteralittlepause,fearwil