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1、郑州大学硕士学位论文电力系统短期负荷预测方法的研究姓名：张德玲申请学位级别：硕士专业：电力系统及其自动化导教师：陈根永20070515郑州人学丁.学《1.•论文AbstractShort-TermLoadForecasting{STLF)isoneofthemostimportantcontentsofrunninganddispatchingofpowersystem.ItcanbeeconomicandreasonabletoarrangestartandstopoftheGeneratorinwirenet,reduceotioserevolvethe
2、storagecapacity.ItcanbereasonabletoarrangeGeneratorthemaintainplan,assurancenormalproduceandliveofsociety,raisetheeconomicefficiencyandsocialefficiencyofElectricpowerenterprise；Underthesituationthattheenergyisincreasinglylackingcurrently,thenationalenergydevelopmentstrategyrequests
3、graduallytoreduceenergyconsumptionoftheunitGDP,theproductionandconsumptionofelectricpowerincreasinglygotomaiket,short-termtoadforecastingresultbecomeimportancebasisofdrawinguptheelectricpowermarketbargainplan.Sotheseputshort-termloadforecastingforwardahigherrequest.Thistextanalyzet
4、hepresentconditionandVariousmethodsandmathematicsmodeloftheshort-termloadforecasting.Consideringthefact,thespecificComparisonofthecommercialelectricityandlifeelectricityofresidentsoftherecentyearsismoreandmorebigintheallsocietyelectricity,theseloadsaresubjectedtoinfluencebyloaddayt
5、ypeandweatherandetc;Moreover,theregionloadlevelisn'talltoohighgenerally,andtheloadconstituteissimplegenerally,sotheseloadsarealsoeffectedeasilybytoaddaytypeandweatherfactors.Accordingtosomeareafact’thistexttakesdaytypeandweatherasthemaininfluencefactorsoftheregionshort-termloadfore
6、casting.Becauseofindeterminationcharacteristicofthesomeinfluencefactora,thistexttakesfuzzymethodtoprocessdata.Thenormalcalculatewaycan'treflectgoodlyweatherconditionandotheroutsidefactorstotheinfluenceforloadforecasting,inrecentyears,,theartificialneuralnetworicmethodetchaveheightn
7、onlineartoreflecttheabilityofshoot,canreflectgoodlytheweatherfactoretc.Buttackofthegeneralrulethatinstructmodeltochoosesautomaticallyinthespeed,stabilityandtheoverallsituationtoordersmallestaspectsofstudyingtorefrainingfromrashaction,justspeedtorefrainftomrashactionatsomeextentThis
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