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1、COREU.S.Restaurants2Q18Preview...CompMo’Sustained2Q18industrycompssustainedthe‘relative’strengthseenin1Q18,likelydrivenbyfurthergrowthinoff-premise,consumertaxreform&anongoingfavorableINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.RestaurantsNEUTRALUnchangedEquityResearch18July2018consu
2、merbackdrop,mitigatedbyelevatedgasprices&tradewaruncertainty.Restaurantstockshavebeenrewardedfortheimprovedfundamentals(outpacingtheS&Pby~1,100bpin2Q18),thoughenthusiasmprudentlyguardedasmomentumForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisrepo
3、rt,pleaseseetableonpage2.hashistoricallybeendifficulttosustainforextendedperiods.Beyondcomps,thecostoutlookremainsvolatile,withcommoditytailwindswaning(thoughperhapsabeneficiaryoftradewardynamics),whilelaborheadwindslarge&menupricingpowerlimited.We’remaintaini
4、ngmost2Q18EPSestimates(withexceptionformulti-nationalFXheadwinds),andbelievemanyrestaurantswillraise‘18guidanceonsustainedcompmomentum,moresoincasualdiningoverQSR.Weareraisingtargetmultiplesonourcasualdinerstoreflectmomentum.Ultimately,webelieve2Q18industrycon
5、sensusfor~13%EPSgrowthisveryachievable,withupsidepotentialforourco-opmodels.Aswedetailedinour‘18outlookreport(“CatalyststoStart…MCD&CasualDinersBestPositioned”,1/16/18),weexpectedareversaloffortunein‘18,asthesharesofourfundamentallymorechallengedco-opcasualdin
6、ersshouldoutperformthefundamentallystrongerfranchisedQSRs.Suchhasplayedoutthusfarwithcasualdinersoutperformingby1,000bps+YTD.Casualdinersshouldcontinuetobenefitfromthesustained‘relative’compstrengthontheirco-opbusinessmodels.Thatsaid,weexpectQSRswillresumeoutp
7、erformancebytheendof‘18,ledbythelarge-capmulti-nationals.QSRsshouldultimatelyreturntofavor,withbenefitfrommorestablecomps&afranchisebusinessmodeltoinsulateagainstcostpressureswhileallowingforelevatedbalancesheetleverageandareturnofcashtoshareholders.July’18Bur
8、gers&Brew.Wepreview2Q18earnings,includingallguidance&models.ThesectoroutperformedtheS&Pby~1,100bpsin2Q,addingtothe~600bpsin1Q,andweexpectoutperformancetocontinuenearterm.Valuations
