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1、EquityResearch16January2018U.S.RestaurantsINDUSTRYUPDATE2018Outlook;CatalyststoStart…U.S.RestaurantsMCD&CasualDinersBestPositionedNEUTRALUnchangedWeexpecttherestaurantsectorwillcontinuetooutperformtheS&PinthefirsthalfForafulllistofourratings,pricetarge
2、tandof’18,similartothecloseof’17.Butwithoutacceleratingfundamentals,suchwillearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseelikelyproveshort-lived.QSR’shavebeenrelativestockoutperformers,moreresilientontableonpage2.compgrowth,whilemoreinsulatedfromcostpressures.S
3、uchiswellunderstood.OurTopPickremainsMcDonald’s(MCD),andwithcompmomentumbuilding,weareU.S.RestaurantsincreasinglycautiousontheotherQSR’s(ledbysmaller-capregionalplayers).AsforJeffreyA.Bernsteincasualdining,weexpectrelativestockpriceoutperformanceversus
4、QSRtostart’18,+12125263855withtheircompuptickformuchof4Q17apleasantsurprise.Importantly,benefitsfromjeffrey.bernstein@barclays.comtaxreform(corporate&consumer)andpotentialM&Aactivitywillbenefitall.BCI,USPratikPatelWeexpectthe4Q17industrycompuptickwillr
5、esumeinFebruary(followingJanuary+12125264438weatherheadwinds),aidedbyaggressivepromoactivity,consumertaxreform,andon-pratik.m.patel@barclays.comtimerefundchecks.Withthatsaid,onthefirstsignofeasinginbroaderindustrycompBCI,USmomentum,coupledwithfadingexc
6、itementontaxandM&A,weexpectareturntoJeffPriesterbroadersectorunderperformance.Inthisnote,welookto’18,analyzingindustrytrends+12125261880andguidancefromall(i.e.comp&unitgrowth,food&laborcosts,cashusage,jeff.priester@barclays.comleverage,EPS,valuation).A
7、ndweupdatePT’storeflect‘19estimates.BCI,USLookingback,thesectorunderperformedtheS&Pin‘17.Afterastrongstart,thesectorexperiencedeasingcomps,whichalongwith‘betterthanfeared’resultsinretail,drovetheweakness,ultimatelytrailingtheS&Pby~2,000bps.Theonlyoutpe
8、rformancecamefromlargecapQSR’s.Butthesector’sunderperformancenarrowedto~1,200bps,drivenbyimprovedcomps,taxreform,andM&Aactivitybenefitingallsub-sectors.Casualdiningexperiencedthemostpronouncedrecovery,thoughweagainquestionsustainability
