亚洲地区-宏观策略-亚洲要闻

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1、3August2018AsiaAsiaEssentialsWhatcaughtmyeye?v.963ThecuriouscaseofIndiavsPhilippinesViktorShvets•India&Philippinesfacesimilarrisks,opportunities&successformulae.•Risingtwindeficits&inflationthreatengrowth.Answer:structuralreforms.•ReformshavestalledinPhilandareslowinginIndia

2、.However,therearestillmorecatalystsinIndia,andhenceweremainO/WbutU/WPhilippines.Chinainsurance4Oversoldbutdon’tholdyourbreathScottRussell•Werefreshourforecastsandsetoutourexpectationsfor1H18results•Wecomparecurrentstockpricestobullandbearscenariosforeachcompanytodemonstratet

3、heattractiverisk-reward.•Weretainapositivesectorviewandmakenochangestoourstockratings.ToppickremainsPingAn.YumChinaHoldings(DowngradetoNeutral)5MurkyoutlookLindaHuang•2QNPbeatexpectationsbutrecordedsofterSSSgandrestaurantmargins.•PizzaHutturnaroundwilltaketime;KFCalsofacesgr

4、owthmoderation.•DowngradetoNeutral;TPcuttoUS$37.2.Wesuggestrevisitinglater.Prada(Outperform)6SSSgmomentumisacceleratingLindaHuang•JulySSSgmomentumslightlypickedupfrom1H18.•Operatingleveragebenefitstartedtoappear.•Cashpositionremainsstrong;thepatentboxisinprogress.TataMotors(

5、Outperform)7JLRUSAsalesdeclined11%inJuly2018AmitMishra•JaguarLandRover(JLR)reportedan11%declineinsalesintheUSinJuly2018.LandRoversalesgrew5.0%YoY,whileJaguarsalesdeclined41%.•Averageincentivesincreased18%YoYand24%MoM,whilemonth-enddealerstocksincreased1.2%MoM.•WeestimateJLR'

6、sUS$ASPimproved2.9%YoY(+1.6%in£)inJuly2018,ledbybettermodelmix.Chinaonlinegamesector8FujianSunnerDevelopment(A-Share)(Outperform)9MacVisit:GreentownService10MacVisit:Hypebeast11Pleaserefertopage27forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsitewww.macquarie.com/

7、research/disclosures.Parade(Outperform)12XinyiGlassHoldings(Outperform)13Japanautos14KonicaMinolta(Outperform)15SuzukiMotor(Outperform)16DaelimIndustrial(Neutral)17HankookTire(Outperform)18Koreaauto19Banpu(Outperform)20MacVisit:Supermax21MalaysiaBanks22Emami(Neutral)23IndiaI

8、Tservices24IndiabullsHousingFinance(Outperform)25NTPC(Outperform)2692August