亚洲地区-宏观策略-重塑亚洲供应链

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1、EQUITYSTRATEGYASIAOctober2018By:HeraldvanderLindehttps://www.research.hsbc.comRetoolingAsia’ssupplychainsNotsofastUStradetariffsareahottopicandthereismuchtalkaboutcompaniesmovingproductionbases,butanychangeswilltaketimeWelayoutaframeworktohelpinvestorsidentifythelinksbetw

2、eenshiftsinindustrialclustersandAsianequitiesWehighlightinvestmentthemessuchasincreasedautomation,countrybenefits,andcompanieswithpricingpowerPlayvideowithHeraldvanderLindeDisclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclos

3、ureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitabcEQUITYSTRATEGY●ASIAOctober2018Asia’ssupplyclusters1abcEQUITYSTRATEGY●ASIAOctober2018ClustersandproductionhubsProductionsystemsarenotalinearsequenceofproductionstagesbutcomplexnetworksofproductionhubs.Dynamicsofcostsvsc

4、apabilities,marketdevelopmentandfinancialdisciplinehaveledtotheevolutionof‘clusters’or‘globalproductionnetworks’(GPNs)FinancialExportsophisticationThechartshowstheGDPpercapitainUSDofthecountriesChinacompeteswithintheUSmarket.Movementtotheright–asshownbelow–meansmoreexpor

5、tsareproducedinChinawhicharealsomadeincountrieswithhigherGDPpercapita.ThisshowsthatChinaismovingupthevalue-addedladder1abcEQUITYSTRATEGY●ASIAOctober2018considerationsDrivetheboundariesandstrategiesofafirmMarketimperative50ExportSophisticationIndexChina,%share200220072017

6、Developmentsinmarketsthatdrivesupplynetworks1abcEQUITYSTRATEGY●ASIAOctober2018Competitivedynamics40CostcapabilityratioCosts,productivityandcapabilitiesofcompaniesdriveglobalproduction1abcEQUITYSTRATEGY●ASIAOctober201830RisksEconomic,productivity,regulatory,labour,andenvi

7、ronmentalrisks201abcEQUITYSTRATEGY●ASIAOctober2018BargainingrelationshipsSimilarcompetitiveandriskenvironmentsmaycompelfirmstoextractgreatervaluefromtheirGPNs‘Globalproductionnetwork’outcomesInter-firmcontrolIntra-firm10coordinationSupplychainsandproductionnetworksareli

8、kelytobeinternalisedthroughdomestic<5K5k-10k10k-15k15k-20k20k-25k25k-30k30k-35k35k-40k>40kexpans