全球-外汇策略-巴黎银行外汇指南

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BNPParibasLondonBranchMichaelSneyd,CFA,GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&Cross-AssetStrategistNatalieRickard,FXStrategistAlexJekov,GraduateKrisGjini,GraduateEURSEKshorttermvalue(FV=10.1471)USDCOPshorttermvalue(FV=2873)10.7310.6310.5310.4310.3310

2、.2310.1310.039.9309-May-201809-Jun-201809-Jul-2018STEEREURSEK294929292909288928692849282928092789276909-May-201809-Jun-201809-Jul-2018STEERUSDCOPBNPParibasSTEER™Model-TradingSignalsEntryDatePositionEntryRateTargetStopLossCloseRateReturn(%)SignalsUpdatedTodayNewSig

3、nals–nonewsignalstodayClosedSignals03-Aug-18SHORTUSDILS3.6917--3.7031(03-Aug-18)-0.3103-Aug-18LONGUSDMXN18.6654--18.5851(03-Aug-18)-0.4318-Jul-18LONGEURUSD1.1631--1.1555(06-Aug-18)-0.65ExistingSignals20-Jul-18SHORTEURSEK10.378610.147110.4665-0.6603-Aug-18SHORTUSDTH

4、B33.340033.095233.4624-0.1730-Jul-18SHORTUSDTWD30.634030.382130.7599-0.0502-Aug-18SHORTUSDCOP2904.922878.582918.09-0.52RecentlyClosedSignals02-Aug-18SHORTUSDSGD1.3654--1.3696(03-Aug-18)-0.31Notes:·STEER™remainsshortEURSEKtargeting10.1471.STEERcontinuestoindicateEUR

5、SEKisthemostovervaluedpairintheG10.Thepair’scorrelationwithfront-endratedifferentialsandoilpricessuggestEURSEKhasfurtherroomtodepreciate.·STEERhascloseditslongEURUSDsignalwithalossof-0.65%afterthepairfailedSTEER’scointegrationtest;indicatingreducedstatisticalconfid

6、enceinthemodelforEURUSD.·InEM,STEERremainsshortUSDversusTHB,TWD,andCOP.STEERhascloseditslongUSDMXNandshortUSDILSsignalsforacombinedlossof-0.74%.SeeMARdisclosureshere.Pleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasSTEER

7、™Model–G10Deviationfromshort-termvalue(z-score)206August2018www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com2.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0AUDUSDGBPUSDNZDUSDEURUSDEURCHFEURGBPEURNOKUSDJPYUSDCADEURSEK30-Jul-201806-Aug-2018206August2018www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comCurren

8、cyAUDUSDGBPUSDNZDUSDEURUSDEURCHFEURGBPEURNOKUSDJPYUSDCADEURSEKSTEER0.76441.34380.70641.18551.16250.88229.4838109.051.284110.1471Spot0.73901.30000