巴黎银行-全球-外汇市场-巴黎银行指南

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BNPParibasLondonBranchMichaelSneyd,CFA,GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&Cross-AssetStrategistNatalieRickard,FXStrategistNZDUSDshorttermvalue(FV=0.7032)USDKRWshorttermvalue(FV=1048)0.7311340.7211140.710.7010940.6910740.6810540.670.66103418-Oct-201718-No

2、v-201718-Dec-201718-Oct-201718-Nov-201718-Dec-2017STEERNZDUSDSTEERUSDKRWBNPParibasSTEER™Model-TradingSignalsEntryDatePositionEntryRateTargetStopLossCloseRateReturn(%)SignalsUpdatedTodayNewSignals15-Dec-18LONGUSDSGD1.32201.32881.3186-0.0015-Dec-18SHORTUSDKRW1062.701054.991

3、066.55-0.00ClosedSignals05-Jan-18SHORTAUDUSD0.7845--0.7924(12-Jan-18)-1.0112-Jan-18LONGUSDCOP2853.20--2847.25(12-Jan-18)-0.21ExistingSignals12-Jan-18SHORTNZDUSD0.72540.70320.7366--0.2608-Jan-18LONGEURNOK9.68549.90229.5804--0.29Notes:ContinuedUSDweaknessappearsoverdoneacc

4、ordingtoSTEER.IntheG10,USDJPYandUSDCADarethepairsmostextremelyundervalued,astherallyinglobalequitymarketsandriseinUS10yyieldssupportsthepairs’fairvalues.STEER™remainsshortNZDUSD,targeting0.7032.TheUSDappearsoversoldbroadlyagainstthecommoditybloc,whilelastweek’sselloffinN

5、ewZealand’sequitymarketshasexacerbatedNZDUSD’sovervaluation.STEERstoppedoutofitsshortAUDUSDsignal,however,soremainsontheside-linesonthatpair.STEERhasinitiatedtwonewUSDAsiasignalstoday;shortUSDKRWandlongUSDSGD.ThedeclineinUSDSGDappearsoverdonegiventhepair’sshort-termfunda

6、mentals.Incontrast,USDKRW’sSTEERhascontinuedtodeclineinJanuary,soSTEERindicatesthatUSDKRWspothasscopetodeclinesubstantially.STEERalsoremainslongEURNOK,targeting9.9022.Thepair’sfairvaluehasrisensharplyasglobalequitymarketsrallied–STEERsignalsthatEURNOKispositivelycorrelat

7、edwithglobalequities–leavingEURNOK2.3z-scoresundervaluedcurrently.Pleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasSTEER™Model–G10Deviationfromshort-termvalue(z-score)3.02.01.00.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0USDJPYEURCHFUSDCADEURNOKEURUSDEU

8、RGBPEURSEKGBPUSDAUDUSDNZDUSD08-Jan-201815-Jan-2018CurrencyUSDJPYEURCHFUSDCADEURNOKEURUSDEURGBPEU