巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-巴黎银行指南

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BNPParibasLondonBranchMichaelSneyd,CFA,GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&Cross-AssetStrategistNatalieRickard,FXStrategistGBPUSDshorttermvalue(FV=1.3487)EURPLNshorttermvalue(FV=4.2983)1.374.321.351.334.271.314.221.291.274.171.251.234.1219-Jul-201719-Aug-201719-Sep

2、-201719-Jul-201719-Aug-201719-Sep-2017STEERGBPUSDSTEEREURPLNBNPParibasSTEER™Model-TradingSignalsEntryDatePositionEntryRateTargetStopLossCloseRateReturn(%)SignalsUpdatedTodayNewSignals16-Oct-17LONGEURPLN4.25224.27544.2406-0.00ClosedSignals–noclosedsignalstodayExistingSignals11-Oct-1

3、7LONGGBPUSD1.32051.34871.3088-0.5706-Oct-17SHORTUSDCAD1.25781.23631.2687-0.8006-Oct-17SHORTEURNOK9.37529.25029.4320-0.62RecentlyClosedSignals05-Oct-17SHORTEURSEK9.5247--9.5750(12-Oct-17)-0.5312-Oct-17SHORTUSDTRY3.6357--3.6516(12-Oct-17)-0.4411-Oct-17SHORTUSDMXN18.7891--18.8639(12-O

4、ct-17)-0.40Notes:STEER™continuestosignalthatGBPUSDhasscopetogainfurtherthisweek,remaininglongtargeting1.3487.Politicaluncertaintyappearstohaveweighedonthepairrecently,andthepairisnow1.4z-scoresundervaluedaccordingtoSTEER.FormoredetailsonourtacticalGBPview,pleaseseeourGlobalFXPlus.

5、STEERsignalsthatbothCADandNOKappeartohavescopetostrengthenthisweek,remainingshortUSDCADtargeting1.2363andshortEURNOKtargeting9.2502.WenotethatCADundervaluationoverthepastweekappearstohavecorrespondedwithasubstantialreductioninCADlongpositionsaccordingtoBNPParibasFXPositioningAnaly

6、sis–seehereforfurtherdetails.MostEMpairsappeartobetradinginlinewiththeirSTEERsthisweek–oneexceptionisEURPLN,wherethecross’sdeclineoverthepastweekappearsunjustifiedbythepair’sshort-termfundamentals,soSTEERhasinitiatedalongEURPLNsignaltoday.Pleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendo

7、fthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasSTEER™Model–G10Deviationfromshort-termvalue(z-score)2.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0GBPUSDAUDUSDUSDJPYEURSEKNZDUSDEURNOKUSDCADEURUSDEURCHFEURGBP09-Oct-201716-Oct-2017CurrencyGBPUSDAUDUSDUSDJPYEURSEKNZDUSDEURNOKUSDCADEURUSDEURCHF

8、EURGBPSTEER1.34870.7925111