j.p.摩根- 2017下半年亚洲经济展望-2017.6.30em asia 2h17 outlook

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1、Completed30Jun201711:57AMHKTDisseminated30Jun201712:26PMHKTEconomicResearchJune30,2017ACSinBengOngsinbeng.ong@jpmorgan.comEMAsia2H17outlook:BacktoJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchACJonathanCavenaghthemeanjonathan.cavenagh@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,Si

2、ngaporeBranchACSajjidChinoy1H17growthinEMAsiasurprisedtotheupside,drivenbytechsajjid.chinoy@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MumbaiBranchandcommodity-relatedsectorsACMarvinChenSofterChinaandG-3capex,shouldseegrowthnormalizein2H17marvin.m.chen@jpmorgan.comJPMor

3、ganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongACTechlaunchesandsemiconductordemandshouldbenefitNorthYingGuAsianeconomiesmorethanothersying.k.gu@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedACStabilizedcapitaloutflowsinChina,reducedvolatilityopenspolicyToshiJaintoshi.jain@jpm

4、organ.comspaceforPBOCtorefocusondomesticissuesJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MumbaiBranchACDespiterecentcyclicallift,coreinflationhasbeenonadowntrend,CarolLiaocarol.w.liao@jpmorgan.comsuggestinglimiteddomesticpricingpowerJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongACGlobalfinancialc

5、onditionsshouldremainsupportiveofEMAsia–JiwonLimjiwon.c.lim@jpmorgan.combalanceofpaymentsrevisedup,premisedonrelativelywelltele-JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SeoulBranchgraphedG3centralbankreactionfunctionsACArthurLukarthur.luk@jpmorgan.comWatchingChina’sfinancialplumbi

6、ngandG3capexJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedACGraceNggrace.h.ng@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongACSeokGilParkseok.g.park@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SeoulBranchACRaisahRasidraisah.rasid@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchAC

7、BenShatilbenjamin.shatil@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchACVasanShridharanvasan.shridharan@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchACHaibinZhuhaibin.zhu@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongContentsEMAsiaoutlook:Backtothemean2Topt

8、radesin2H177China9HongKong13India15Indonesia19Korea21Malaysia24Philippines26Singapore28SriLanka30Taiwan32Thailand34Vietnam36RegionalEconomicOutlook38JPM