全球股票策略：增长与价值.docx

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1、EquityResearchGlobalGlobalEquityStrategyTheBigIssue:GrowthversusValue?InvestmentStrategy

2、StrategyWeremainoverweightUSgrowth(aswehavebeenoverthepastdecade),butnotinEurope.IntheUSgrowthoutperformsas:Thecostofequitycanfallfurtherandre-ratelong-durationassets.OurmodelscontinuetoshowthattheERPcanfallc1%t

3、o1.5%,morethanthebondyieldislikelytorise.Thisdisproportionatelyre-rateslong-durationassets.ThisiswhygrowthintheUShas,inthepast18months,outperformed63%ofthetimewhenthebondyieldhasrisen.Thevaluationofgrowthisnotyetextreme.TheP/Eofgrowthinpreviousgrowthbubbleshasbeen45xto72xcomparedwith33xcurrently(and

4、38xforsoftware).Late-cyclebullmarketsintheUSdonothaveachangeinleadershippartlybecauseretailflows(stillmuted)followperformanceanddriveupvaluationstoextremes.EarningsrevisionsofUSgrowthremainmuchbetterthanvalue.Otherfactorssupportiveofgrowth:Everymajorbullmarket(asdefinedbytheinflation-adjustedreturns

5、risingabovepreviouspeaks)endsupina‘growth’bubble,andthelossofbreadthisstillsmallrelativetopreviousgrowthbubbles.Thenormalcorrectioninthisgrowthbullmarkethasbeen8%,takingover12monthstoreturntotheprevioushighwatermark(75%ofthetimeyieldsriseoverthisperiod,60%ofthetimeISMrises).Thefactorsthatnormallymar

6、kanendofcyclegrowthbubblepeakinclude:averylowERP,largeretailinflows,newvaluationmethodologies,aroll-overinearningsrevisionsorclear-cutover-investment.WefocusonlowlyleveragedgrowththatgeneratesFCF.FocusingoneCAPsandhighoperationalquality:MSFT,Alphabet,andVisa.UScyclicals:theyarepricinginanISMofcloset

7、o60,abondyieldof2.5%andareexpensive.WhyisEuropedifferent?WethinkgrowthwillunderperforminEuropebecause:i)theP/EandP/BofgrowthversusvalueisbacktopreviousTMTpeaks;ii)valueoutperformswhenBundyieldsrise,andcurrentlygrowthstocksarediscountinga-1.7%bundyield(wethinkBundyieldscanendtheyeararoundzero);iii)ea

8、rningsrevisionsarerollingoveringrowthversusvalue(unliketheUS)andthisprovidesawarningsignal;v)pricemomentumisveryoverbought,andonalloccasionstendstounderperforminthefollowingsixmonths.Europeanstockstof