瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股票策略：2020年的10大惊喜-2020.1.17.pdf

《瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股票策略：2020年的10大惊喜-2020.1.17.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、17January2020EquityResearchGlobalGlobalEquityStrategy10Surprisesfor2020InvestmentStrategy

2、StrategyFornearly30yearsatthebeginningofeachyear,wehavelookedatwhereourcorescenariosResearchAnalystsmightbewrong.Thesesurprisesarenotourcentralviewsbutshowwheretheskewofdistributio

3、nlies.Weidentifyfivepositiveandfivenegativesurprises.AndrewGarthwaite442078836477Positivesurprisesandrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comS&Prises25%(coreview:year-endtarget3,425)RobertGriffiths442078838885Japanendsupbeingthebest-performingmajorregion(coreview:modestoutperfo

4、rmance)robert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comTheeuroappreciatestoEuro/$1.25(coreview:Euro/$1.15)NicolasWylenzek442078836480Oilendsupbeingoneofthetopthreebest-performingsectorsin2020(coreview:modestnicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comoutperformanceforEuropeanIOCs)MengyuanYuanG

5、reen-relatedpublicinfrastructureinvestmenttakesoffin2020(coreview:onlymodest442078880368fiscaleasingandGermany’sBlackZeroandtheEU’sStabilityandGrowthPactrulesaremengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comunaltered)AsimAliNegativesurprises442078832480asim.ali@credit-suisse.comChinaG

6、DPslowstosub4%—itslowestgrowthratesince1990(coreview:GDPof5.9%)TimothyO'Sullivan442078889803USbondyieldshit3%(houseview:2.2%in12months’time)timothy.osullivan@credit-suisse.comCreditonarisk-adjustedbasisistheworst-performingasset(houseview:benchmark)Technologyunderperfor

7、ms(coreview:outperforms,thoughwesharplyreducedouroverweightinsoftwareandtooksemisbacktobenchmarkinour2020Outlook)Italianfundingcrisis,bondspreadswidento350bp(houseview:nofundingcrisis)DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATI

8、ONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshould

9、considerthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.17January2020TableofContentsS&Prisesby25%