瑞信-全球-投资策略-全球股票策略：中国的矿业与奢侈品行业-2019.8.1.pdf

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1、GlobalEquityStrategyChina:Miningandluxury1August2019EquityResearchGlobalLinktonoteResearchAnalystsAndrewGarthwaiteRobertGriffithsNicolasWylenzek+442078836477+442078838885+442078836480andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comrobert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comnicolas.wylenzek@credit-sui

2、sse.comMengyuanYuanAsimAli+442078880368+442078832480mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comasim.ali@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesan

3、dseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Aggregatedemandhasstabiliz

4、ed.Moneysupplyhaspickedup.Fiscalpolicyisbeingeasedbyc2%ofGDP(withlocalgovernmentbondissuanceata4-yearhighandthesebondsareusedtofinancenewprojects).Macromomentumindicatorshaveformedalow.DemandgrowthhasstabilisedTSFgrowthhashadasmallbounce,whilebanklendinghasheldupwell14.0%35%Aggre

5、gateddemand(exports+FAI+retailsales)growth,yoy,3mma13.5%30%13.0%25%12.5%12.0%20%11.5%15%11.0%10.5%10%Bankloangrowth10.0%5%TSFgrowth9.5%0%9.0%200120042008201120152019Jan-16Jul-16Feb-17Aug-17Mar-18Sep-18Apr-19LocalgovernmentbondissuancehaspickedupChinamacromomentumisstabilising1200

6、2.00Localgovernmentbondissuance,RMBbnChinamacromomentumaggregatez-score-scorecard1.5010001.008000.500.00600-0.50400-1.00-1.50200-2.000-2.50Feb-15Dec-15Oct-16Sep-17Jul-18May-19Mar-06Mar-08Mar-10Mar-12Mar-14Mar-16Mar-18Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch2China:Thereissomeroomforp

7、olicyflexibilityFiscalflexibilityTheIMFestimatesthatChina'saugmentedgovernmentdebtisc77%ofGDPin2019,takingintoaccountLocalGovernmentFinancingVehiclesandotheroff-budgetactivity.Thisisclearlyalownumberbyinternationalstandards.TheIMFestimatesthataftertakingintoaccountgovernmentequi

8、tyholdingsofstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs)