瑞信-全球-投资策略-全球股票策略：区域分配-2017.9.14-credit suisse-global equity strategy regional allocation

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1、14September2017GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYAndrewGarthwaite442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comRegionalallocationMarinaProninaWedowngradeJapantobenchmark(fromoverweight)because:i)BoJ442078836476marina.pronina@credit-s

2、uisse.compolicyisincreasinglyunclear(theirpurchasepacehastaperedbyaroundRobertGriffithsc20%fromitspeak)atatimewhenCPIinflationexfoodandenergyis-0.1%;442078838885ii)thecaseforyenweaknesshasdiminished;iii)PrimeMinisterAbe'slossofrobert.griffiths@credit-suisse.compopularitythreatensat

3、ighterfiscalpolicyandlossofreformmomentum;iv)NicolasWylenzekbuybacksaretrackinglowerthan2016,whileJapanisthemostleveraged442078836480nicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comregiontoglobalPMIs,whicharepeaking.WhatstopsusfromdowngradingAlexHymersfurther:i)clear-cutsupportfromfundsflow(BoJ/

4、corporatebuying);ii)Japanis442078889710No.2onourvaluationscorecard(withEV/EBITDAparticularlydepressed);alex.hymers@credit-suisse.comandiii)weseesomeclearsignsofcorporatechange.MengyuanYuan442078880368OurlargestoverweightremainsGEMequities:Weaddedtoweightingsinmengyuan.yuan@credit-s

5、uisse.comAprilandJune,havingbeenoverweightsinceDecember2015.GEMcurrencieshaveclear-cutvaluationsupport(26%cheaponourmodels)andtheyarethemostimportantdriverofreturns.GEMequitiesarealsocheap(19%onasector-adjustedPEbasis).GEMcorporatesappeartobechangingforthebetterwithimprovedcapitald

6、iscipline,whileunitlabourcostsarefallingforthefirsttimeinsixyears.Thetechshareofmarketcapisnowtwicethatofcommodities,andabovethatoftheUS;GEM,webelieve,benefitsmorethananyotherregionfromdigitalisation/disruptivetechnology.GEMalsostillhaspolicyflexibility.Onlyathirdofequityoutflowssi

7、nce2013havereturned.Russia,ChinaandKorealookattractiveonourscorecards.ContinentalEurope:smalloverweightinlocalcurrencyterms:Indollarterms,ContinentalEuropeanequitiesareaclearoverweight.WecutlocalcurrencyweightingsinJune(owingtoconcernsovereurostrength,with10%onthecurrencytakingc.6%

8、offEPS).Supportsincluderel