j.p. 摩根-全球宏观经济数据解读

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1、Completed06Oct201708:30PMEDTDisseminated06Oct201708:34PMEDTEconomicResearchOctober6,2017GlobalDataWatchGlobalgrowthiscruisingandCPIinflationisreboundingfrom2QdipContentsWithdemandgrowthstrong,supplysideimprovementisneededThenextmoveinglobalinflationisup15ShiftingECBforecast

2、tosharperinitialtaperheldforlongerDMcentralbanksinmotionasu-ratenears40-yearlow17Nextweek:BigdatainUS:retailsalesup2%andCPIup0.6%m/mAssessinghousingcorrectionriskacrossUScounties21Argentina:2018budget,adetourHeySay:Willdemandcreateitsownsupply?fromgradualism24Notwithstandingt

3、hemonthlyvolatilityinUSandChinadata,webelievetheJapan:Jobgrowthunlikelytohaltevenasagingadvances26globaleconomyclearlyissignalingthatitwillsustaingrowthclosetothe3.2%Diagnosingthehealthofrecordedoverthepastyear.MonetarystancesremainhighlyaccommodativeAustralianemployment28andp

4、oliticaldevelopmentsaretiltingfiscalstancestowardmodeststimulus.Australia:RenewedrelevanceforMeanwhile,financialconditionsremainsupportiveanditishardtoidentifyananimalspiritsinhousing32additionalpost-financialcrisisreverberationlurkingintheshadows.ConsistentGlobalEconomicOutlo

5、okSummary4withthisview,ourall-industryglobalPMIheldsteadylastmonthatalevelGlobalCentralBankWatch6consistentwith3.2%globalGDPgrowth(Figure1).PerhapsmostencouragingNowcastofglobalgrowth7aresignsthatabroad-basedrecoveryinglobalcapitalspendingistakinghold.Selectedrecentresearchfro

6、m9Thisweek’sreportsshowedUSandGermancapitalgoodsshipmentsbothupatJ.P.MorganEconomicsadouble-digitannualizedpaceinthethreemonthsthroughAugust.TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10DataWatchesUnitedStates34The2QglobalCPIinflationdipalsoappearstobebehindus(seetheresearchEuroarea42note“Thene

7、xtmoveinglobalinflationisup”inthisGDW).FoodandenergyJapan46pricedeclineswereimportantcontributorstothisdip,aco-movementdownthatCanada50Mexico52isunusualalongsiderapidlygrowinggoodsdemand.TheenergypricedrophasBrazil54beenreversed—apointtobeunderscoredinnextweek’sUSSeptemberrepo

8、rt,Argentina56whichweexpecttopostasecondconsecutivelargeheadl