j.p. 摩根-全球-宏观经济-全球数据观察-2017.9.15-jpmorgan-global data watch consider the punchbowl

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1、Completed15Sep201708:31PMEDTDisseminated15Sep201708:34PMEDTEconomicResearchSeptember15,2017GlobalDataWatchCentralbanksgrapplewithmarketcomplacencyonratenormalizationContentsThroughChinadownshiftandUSstorms,globalgrowthlookssolidUS:Itdoesn'ttakemuchjobgrowthtogetu-ratelower15May’sFlorenc

2、espeechandGermanelectiontoguideonEUpoliticsUS:What'snextonthefiscalfront17HowdoglobalvaluechainfactorsNextweek:Fedmovesonbalancesheetwithno“dotplot”changeaffectJapan'sweakwages?19Mexico:FiscalconsolidationinConsiderthepunchbowlsight,notinhand22NZelectionbringingeasierfiscalAugustactivityr

3、eleasesforChinaandtheUSweresofterthanexpectedthispolicy,soonerorlater26weekbutdonotshakeourconfidencethattheglobaleconomyissustainingChina'seconomictieswithNorthKorea28solidgrowthmomentum.China’sdatahavebeenunusuallyvolatilerecentlyGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4andthelatestdisappointmentisn

4、otinlinewithmoreupbeatsurveyreadingsGlobalCentralBankWatch6andregionaltrends.IntheUS,thedisruptionsfromHurricaneHarveyde-Nowcastofglobalgrowth7pressedAugustindustrialproductionandautosaleswhilepushingjoblessSelectedrecentresearchfrom9claimshigher.Althoughthedisruptionshouldbeshort-lived,Ir

5、malikelywillJ.P.MorganEconomicsextendthedragandgrowthcouldbeshiftedfromthisquartertonext.TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10DataWatchesItisimportanttorecognizethatwehaveincorporateda2H17moderationinUnitedStates30Chinainourforecastthattempersotherwisepositiveglobalgrowthimpulses.Euroarea38Japan42Pe

6、rhapsthemostimportantofthoseimpulsesistheupturninglobalbusinessCanada44confidenceandspending.Thenewshereremainsupbeat.FollowingasolidMexico46increaseintomidyear,capitalgoodstradeflowsstillareaccelerating,pointingBrazil48Argentina50toastrongglobalcapexgainthisquarter(Figure1).Chile,Colombia

7、,Peru52UnitedKingdom54TherecentinflationslidehasbeenourgreaterconcernandthelatestnewsisScandinavia56reassuring.WithglobalgrowthmomentumholdingfirmandBrentcrudeoilEmergingEurope58pricesnowhavingreversedthe$10/blslideoverApril-JunewearegainingSouthAfrica&SSA63EM