j.p. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球数据观察

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1、Completed06Oct201708:30PMEDTDisseminated06Oct201708:34PMEDTEconomicResearchOctober6,2017GlobalDataWatchGlobalgrowthiscruisingandCPIinflationisreboundingfrom2QdipContentsWithdemandgrowthstrong,supplysideimprovementisneededThenextmoveinglobalinflationisup15ShiftingECBfore

2、casttosharperinitialtaperheldforlongerDMcentralbanksinmotionasu-ratenears40-yearlow17Nextweek:BigdatainUS:retailsalesup2%andCPIup0.6%m/mAssessinghousingcorrectionriskacrossUScounties21Argentina:2018budget,adetourHeySay:Willdemandcreateitsownsupply?fromgradualism24Notwiths

3、tandingthemonthlyvolatilityinUSandChinadata,webelievetheJapan:Jobgrowthunlikelytohaltevenasagingadvances26globaleconomyclearlyissignalingthatitwillsustaingrowthclosetothe3.2%Diagnosingthehealthofrecordedoverthepastyear.MonetarystancesremainhighlyaccommodativeAustralianempl

4、oyment28andpoliticaldevelopmentsaretiltingfiscalstancestowardmodeststimulus.Australia:RenewedrelevanceforMeanwhile,financialconditionsremainsupportiveanditishardtoidentifyananimalspiritsinhousing32additionalpost-financialcrisisreverberationlurkingintheshadows.ConsistentGlo

5、balEconomicOutlookSummary4withthisview,ourall-industryglobalPMIheldsteadylastmonthatalevelGlobalCentralBankWatch6consistentwith3.2%globalGDPgrowth(Figure1).PerhapsmostencouragingNowcastofglobalgrowth7aresignsthatabroad-basedrecoveryinglobalcapitalspendingistakinghold.Selec

6、tedrecentresearchfrom9Thisweek’sreportsshowedUSandGermancapitalgoodsshipmentsbothupatJ.P.MorganEconomicsadouble-digitannualizedpaceinthethreemonthsthroughAugust.TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10DataWatchesUnitedStates34The2QglobalCPIinflationdipalsoappearstobebehindus(seetherese

7、archEuroarea42note“Thenextmoveinglobalinflationisup”inthisGDW).FoodandenergyJapan46pricedeclineswereimportantcontributorstothisdip,aco-movementdownthatCanada50Mexico52isunusualalongsiderapidlygrowinggoodsdemand.TheenergypricedrophasBrazil54beenreversed—apointtobeunderscore

8、dinnextweek’sUSSeptemberreport,Argentina56whichweexpecttopostasecondconsecutivelargeheadl