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1、EquityResearch8January2018NorthAmericaTransportationEARNINGSPREVIEWKeepCalmandTransportOnNorthAmericaTransportationInthisnote,weprovideourusual4Q17previewaswellassectorthoughtson2018.POSITIVEUnchangedConsistentsincemid-2016,transportdemandcontinuestosignalst
2、rengthacrosstheglobaleconomy,heraldingarobustbackdropforcyclicalequitiesin2018.WhileweForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandappreciatesomecautioninthegroupfollowingastrongmarketrallylastyear(IYTearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2.transportinde
3、x+18%vs.S&P500+19%),ourbullishappetiteremains,especiallyforlargecaprailroadsandFedEx.AstemptingasitistotakedownexposureinagroupthatNorthAmericaTransportationhadasolidrun,ourexperienceleadsustoremaininthegame,lettingfundamentalsBrandonR.Oglenskidictatepositio
4、ning,similartoourcallthistimelastyear(see‘JustGettingStarted;Upgrade+12125268903Sector&UNP’published9Jan17).Further,wesensemanyinthemarkethadrecentlybrandon.oglenski@barclays.combeenorremainfearfulofidiosyncraticchallengesinrailroadequities(fracsanddeclines,
5、BCI,USeconomicdecoupling,etc…)whichhaslikelyhelpedkeeprelativesectorvaluationsVanKegelattractivedespitestrengthinearningsandclearlyfavorableoutcomesfromUStaxreform+12125265019(avg.railmultipleinlinewithmarket).Apartfromourbullishviewonrailequities,strongvan.
6、kegel@barclays.comglobaltradeandecommerceexpansionalsodriveafavorableoutlookforourTopPick,BCI,USFedEx.Andwhilewearerelativelylessexcitedonmostofoursmallcapfreightandlogisticsstocksgivenhighrelativevaluations,weremainexcitedforprospectsatXPOasMatthewWisniewsk
7、i+12125265143thecompanyislikelytodeliveronambitiousexpansionplansthisyear.Allin,thematthew.wisniewski@barclays.comtransportchartsmaylookscarytobuyinearly2018,butweremainforwardfocusedandBCI,USremindinvestorsofthecyclicalpowerofagloballysynchronizedeconomicex
8、pansion.MatthewPrestonTransportdemandfiringonallcylinders;expectpositiveUSandglobaleconomic+12125265752revisions.Forthefirsttimesincetherecoveryin2010,wecanmarkalltransportverticalsmatthew.prest
