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1、EquityResearch10January2018NorthAmericaAirlinesINDUSTRYUPDATEHurryUpandWaitNorthAmericaAirlinesInthisnoteweprovideourusual4Q17previewaswellasthoughtson2018.POSITIVEUnchangedWearegluttonsforpunishment;thusourcontinuedloveforairlines.Objectively,higherfuelpricesandlingering
2、costpressureinearly2018aredrivinglowerForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandoperatingearningsinarobusteconomy(EPSonlysavedbylowertaxes).Revenueearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseeoutcomescouldsurprisetotheupside,butonceagainthe‘cheap’airlinesectorwilltableonpage2.askinv
3、estorstopatientlywaitforearningsexpansionwhiletherestofthecyclicaleconomymovesonwardsandupwards.Wemaintainourlong-termbullishoutlookNorthAmericaAirlinesonthestocks,butaretakingsomeexposureoffthetabletoday,downgradingAlaskaBrandonR.OglenskitoEqualWeight.Elevatedsystemcapac
4、itygrowthdoesappeartoreflectbullish+12125268903expectationsfromairlinemanagementteamsbutgivespausetofinancialmarkets.Putbrandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI,USsimply,wesuspectmanyinvestorsviewsystemcapacityexpansionof5%willroughlymatchindustryrevenuegrowthin2018,thuslendingli
5、mitedunitpricegains(RASM).MatthewWisniewski,CPAHowever,andashighlightedrecentlyatDelta’sanalystmeeting,notalloutcomesare+12125265143createdequal.BottomupanalysissuggestslargecarrierssuchasDeltaandAmerican,matthew.wisniewski@barclays.comwhichhavecommittedtokeepingcapacityb
6、eloweconomicgrowth,shouldlikelyBCI,USachievefavorableunitpriceexpansion,asDeltamanagementguidedtoin2018.VanKegelFurther,coupledwithstrongerfuturecashflowexpectationsfromlowertaxrates,we+12125265019stillseemanyreasonstobebullishononeofthecheapestsectorswithintheS&P500.van.
7、kegel@barclays.comBCI,USWedonothavegreatvisibilityonnextmonth’sRASM(thedataisexpensiveandnotwithoutflaws),butthepreponderanceofevidencesuggestsrevenueandbroaderMatthewPrestonmacroeconomicoutcomesshouldacceleratehigherin2018.Plusdonotforget+12125265752aboutthelong-termposi
8、tivecorrelationbetweenfuelpricesandrevenue.Givenourmatthew.preston@barclays.comuniquecoverageofg
