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1、EquityResearch9January2018U.S.SoftwareINDUSTRYUPDATE2018Outlook:Security,DesignandU.S.SoftwareVSS–StillHasOpportunitiesPOSITIVEUnchangedSecurityshouldcontinuehealthygrowthof~8%inFY18ledbysub-sectorslikeIAM,SVM,andendpointwhichiswhylikeSYMC,RPD,MIME.WetakeamoreconservativeU.S.Softwar
2、eviewoffirewallafteramixed2017,whichiswhywedowngradeFTNTconcurrently.InSaketKalia,CFAdesign,wecontinuetolikeallnames,buttacticallylikePTCbetterfor1H18and+12125268465ADSK/ADBEbetterin2H.InVSS,weupgradeELLIonabettermortgageoutlook.saket.kalia@barclays.comBCI,US10predictionsfor10stocks
3、in2018.Welist10predictionsfor10stocksinourcoveragethatwethinkarepossible.Forexample,wethinkADSKcouldmakebiggerDavidFisheracquisitionsthanithasinthepasttobuildoutitsconstructionportfolio.Wealsothink+12125267126PANWcouldbeatandraiseonproductrevenuethroughoutthisyear.Otherstocksdavid.f
4、isher@barclays.comBCI,USincludedareADBE,SYMC,PTC,CHKP,NUAN,ELLI,FEYE,andANSSonpage3.AndrewThomasAndrewThomasSecurityexpectedtogrow~8%inFY18,andwetakeamoreconservativeviewof+12125268081firewallgrowth,butlikeendpoint/IAM/SVM.Weestimatetotalsecurityproductsandrew.w.thomas@barclays.comg
5、rowthof~8%inFY18,withsegmentslikeIAMandSVMgrowingfasterandsegmentsBCI,USlikecorporateendpointseeingincreasedinterest.However,wetakeamoreconservativeviewoffirewallspending(~8%vsIDC’s10%)giventheinconsistentresultsin2017–henceourdowngradeofFTNT.Infirewall,welikePANW;inothersecuritysub
6、-segments,welikeSYMC,MIME,RPD.OuronlyOWinthefirewallspaceisPANWbecausewebelievetheywillseemoreconsistentresultsinFY18,andacalloptionfromnewofferingsinFY19andbeyond.Outsideoffirewall,welikeSYMCtocapitalizeonendpointsecurityinterest,MIMEbecauseFY19numbersarelow,andRPDonitstransitionto
7、subscription.WealsothinkCYBRandVRNScouldseebenefitsfromGDPRandIAMstrength.Designsoftware:fundamentalssupportdesignstocks,tacticallywelikePTCin1HandADSK/ADBEin2H.Engineeringemploymentshouldcontinuetobehealthyin2018offbroaderhealthinmanufacturingandarchitecture,supportingdesignsoftwar
8、estockslikeADSKandP
