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《巴克莱-美股-交通运输业-2018年航空运输业深度展望-2017.10.2-barclays-north america transportation deep dive on 2018 freight outlook》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、EquityResearch2October2017NorthAmericaTransportationINDUSTRYUPDATEDeepDiveon2018FreightOutlookNorthAmericaTransportationPOSITIVEThemarketisclearlybullishonfreightfundamentals,withmostlargetruckingUnchangedstockstradingnearlyoneortwostandarddeviationsabovehistoricallevels.M&A
2、accretion,improvingdemand,lowersupplyandpotentialimpactfromdomesticUSForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandregulations(bothtaxpolicyandindustryissuessuchasELDs)haveledtomaterialearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseestockgainsacrossthemostlysmallandmidcapfreighttransportation
3、vertical(seeourtableonpage2.DebatingFreightnotefordetailsonELDregulations,‘LoggingOntoTruckingWeek’published21Mar17).Aswenotedlastmonth,whilewegenerallyagreewiththeNorthAmericaTransportationfundamentalenthusiasmheadinginto2018,weseegreatervalueopportunitiesinlargeBrandonR.Og
4、lenskicaptransports,aslowerrelativevaluationsandequallycompellingearningsoutlooks+12125268903likelyprovideamorefavorablerisk-rewardspreadatpresent(see‘ValueinLargeCapbrandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI,USasPeakArrives’published11Sep17).Nonetheless,inthisnoteweattempttoprovideob
5、jectiveanalysisofkeyrevenue,costandearningsdriversacrossourfreightVanKegeltransportationcoverage.+12125265019van.kegel@barclays.comRobustrevenuegainsandM&Aaccretiontargetscriticaltoachievingnearly30%BCI,USexpectedtruckingearningsgrowthin2018.Freightpricinghasimprovedin2017,M
6、atthewWisniewskifollowingseveralyearsofanoversuppliedmarket.Wecurrentlymodelaroughly3%+12125265143increaseinfreightratesnextyear,whichalsoshouldsupportagenerallyrobustpricingmatthew.wisniewski@barclays.comenvironmentforalloftransportsgiventheoutsizednatureofthetruckingmarket
7、.BCI,USFurther,marketenthusiasmformarginimprovementfollowingM&AtransactionsatKNX,HUBGandHTLDaddtotherobustearningsoutlook.Onthecostfront,driverpayishistoricallycorrelatedwithpricing,butweexpecttepidinflationin2018tosupportcyclehighincrementalmargins.Weremindinvestorsthatthep
8、ureTruckLoad(TL)businessdoesnothavemuchoperatingleveragegivenhighdriverturn
