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《巴克莱-美股-航空业-北美航空业：2018年航空业深度展望-2017.9.21-barclays-north america airlines deep dive on 2018 airline outlook》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、EquityResearch21September2017NorthAmericaAirlinesINDUSTRYUPDATEDeepDiveon2018AirlineOutlookNorthAmericaAirlinesPOSITIVETohelpframeairlineearningspotentialin2018,wehaveputtogetheranobjectiveUnchangedviewonrevenue,costandmargins.Ofcourseplentyofvariablesre
2、maininplay,mostlysurroundinghowmuchcapacitywillexpand,especiallyfromcarrierssuchasForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandUnitedandSouthwest.Withthisnote,weareslightlyloweringourrevenueearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseeexpectationsasourpriorestimatesha
3、dassumedsignificantmarketexpansion(+6-7%).tableonpage2.Further,wearealsoincreasingforecastcapacitygrowthfromUnited,asweexpectmanagement’sfocusonmarketsharegainsandhubconnectivitywilllikelydriveNorthAmericaAirlinesanotheryearofexpansionaboveeconomicgrowth
4、.Theendresultisroughlya10ptBrandonR.OglenskireductionforUnitedanda2-6ptreductioninearningsgrowthfortheotherthreelarge+12125268903carriersgivenamarginallylowerrevenueoutlooksetagainstslightlyhighercapacity.Itbrandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI,USisnotlostonu
5、sthatour2018estimateshavenowbeenreducedbyroughly6%sincethebeginningoftheyear.WerealizereducedearningsvolatilitywillberequiredfortheMatthewWisniewskiindustrytogarnerhigherequityvaluations.Nonetheless,wewillleavemostofthe+12125265143politicsandsubjectiveop
6、inionsoutofthisnoteandfocusonthefundamentalmatthew.wisniewski@barclays.compossibilities.BCI,USVanKegelIndustryrevenuegrowthcouldapproach5-6%in2018,setagainstcapacity+12125265019expectationsof4-5%.Givenrevenuegrowthin2017isaround4%,weunderstandvan.kegel@b
7、arclays.comsomemayquestionanoutlookforaccelerationindemand.However,weremindBCI,USinvestorsofapowerfulcorrelationbetweenfuelandrevenue,withjetfuelpricesexpectedtoincrease10%nextyear.Nonetheless,givenahighercapacityoutlook,astrongereconomywillberequiredtod
8、riveimprovedrevenueoutcomes.Buthereagainwearecomfortableexpectingairlinerevenuegrowthof6%in2018,150-200bpsabovenominalGDP.Overthepast15yearsindustryrevenuehasoutgrownnominalGDPonaverageby100bps.Further,strongconcurrenttran
