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1、EquityResearch15December2017U.S.RestaurantsINDUSTRYUPDATEWhatGoesUpandNeverComesU.S.RestaurantsDown?...RestaurantLaborCostsNEUTRALUnchangedInthisnote,weanalyzelaborcosts(~30%ofrestaurantsales),whichhaveseenU.S.Restaurantsoutsizedinflationoflate,andwillpressurerestaur
2、antmarginsfortheforeseeableJeffreyA.Bernsteinfuture.Bottomline,withindustrycompgrowthlessthanideal,andmenupricingpower+12125263855limitedtooffsettheoutsizedinflation,EPSgrowthwillbepressuredin‘18.Weexpectjeffrey.bernstein@barclays.comrestaurantswillbattlemidsingle-di
3、gitlaborinflationin’18(similartoorgreaterthanBCI,US’17),splitbetweenstatemandatedandnon-mandatedwageincreases.ThefollowingistheDecember‘17editionofBernstein'sBurgers&Brew;What'sonInvestors'Minds.PratikPatel+12125264438Franchisebusinessmodels(i.e.primarilyQSR’s)arewel
4、linsulatedfromcostheadwindspratik.m.patel@barclays.com(&tailwinds).Therefore,ouranalysisofoutsizedlaborcostinflationisfocusedonourBCI,UScompany-operatedbusinessmodels(i.e.primarilycasualdining),withafranchisemixJeffPriestersub-50%.Inthisreport,weanalyzethedriversofre
5、staurantlaborcostpressures(1)+12125261880StateMandated&(2)Non-Mandated,aswellas(3)&(4)Associatedtaximplications.jeff.priester@barclays.comBCI,US(1)StateMandatedWageIncreases.Since2009,theUSminimumwagehasbeenunchangedat$7.25/hour.Asaresult,minimumwageregulationhaslarg
6、elyshiftedfromfederaltostatemandatedwith30states/districtscurrentlymandatingminimumwageabovethefederallevel.Lookingto2018,19states&DCareexpectedtoincreasetheirminimumwage.Ultimately,SHAK,BJRI,CMG&CAKEarelikelytoseeoutsizedminimumwagepressure.SeeFigure’s1&6fordetail.S
7、ince1991,theUStipwagehasbeenunchangedat$2.13/hour.Similarlytominimumwage,tipwageregulationhaslargelyshiftedfromfederaltostatemandatedwith33states/districtscurrentlymandatingtipwageabovethefederallevel.Lookingto2018,16states&DCareexpectedtoraisetheirtipwage.Ultimately
8、,BJRI&CAKEareexpectedtoseeoutsizedtipwagepressure.SeeFigure’s1&11fordetail.Contrarytominimumwage,SHAK&CMGarenotimpactedastheydonotp
