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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinesetelecom17October2017TelecommunicationssectorIndustryUpdateJamesWang3Q17results:keyissuestolookoutResearchAnalyst(+852)22036145forjames-z.wang@db.comSectortodemonstrateitsgrowthpotential;CMthetoppick
2、PeterMilliken,CFAWeforecast3Q17servicerevenuetogrow6%YoYandEBITDAtorise5%forResearchAnalysttheChinesetelcos,drivenbyimprovingsubscribergrowthandstable-to-(+852)22036190improvingARPU,partiallyoffsetbyahighermarketingspend.WeexpectCMpeter.milliken@db.comtode
3、liverslightlybettergrowthin3Q17vsCT(servicerevenueandnetprofitbothrising6%),duetoastrongermomentuminQ2andaneasierbaseinToppicks3Q16.ForCU,weforecastrevenuegrowthtoimproveto5%inQ3from4%inQ2,onaccountofhighernetaddsandimprovingmonetizationoftheinternetChinaM
4、obile(0941.HK),HKD79.15Buychannelcustomers.WithCMhavingbeenleftbehindbythemarketrally,aSource:DeutscheBanksolidsetofnumberscoulddrawattentionbacktothestock.CompaniesFeaturedKeyissuestolookoutforChinaTelecomCorp(0728.HK),HKD4.08BuyThekeyissuestolookoutfor,i
5、nthe3Q17results,are:1)ARPUtrends–our2016A2017E2018Eanalysisinthe1H17review,comparingChina’spricingstructurewithregionalP/E(x)14.614.113.1peers,suggeststhatthecurrentenvironmentremainssupportiveforARPUEV/EBITDA(x)3.73.83.5improvement.Thisshouldallayinvestor
6、fearsaroundtheimpactofPrice/book(x)0.80.90.8competition.2)Salesandmarketingcosttrends,andwhetherCM’srecentmovetoboostitsspendishavingamaterialknock-oneffectontheothertwoChinaUnicom(0762.HK),HKD11.38Buyplayers.3)TowerCoprofitability,whichmaynotriseasquickly
7、asin1H17,2016A2017E2018EwithCMreviewingitstowerrentalcostsin2H17.4)MoreimprovementforP/E(x)291.668.231.2CU,astheinternetchannelcustomersstarttocontributemoreinrevenue.WeEV/EBITDA(x)4.23.83.2willalsowatchoutforsignsonhowitsefficiencydrive,postthemixedPrice/
8、book(x)0.81.00.9ownershipreform,isaffectingCU’scostbase.ChinaMobile(0941.HK),HKD79.15BuyDeutscheBankforecastsandreportingdates2016A2017E2018EThepreliminaryquarterlyreportingdatesare:CM(20Oct),CU(27Oct)andCTP/
