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1、Asia-PacTelecomsDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateAustralasia20February2018JapanAsia-PacTelecomsTelecommunicationsIndustryUpdateTelecommunicationsScreener:YearoftheDogPeterMilliken,CFAMeasuringrelativevalueinanunderpricedsectorResearchAnalystWhil
2、etheAPACex-Japanmarketisbackatpre-GFChighs,telcosneedtorise41%togetthere,andareupjust27%fromGFClows.Asaresult,halfofthe+852-22036190USD10bn+Asiantelcosnowsellatorbelow12x2018P/E.SectorrelativeP/EhasJamesWangdroppedto1.0x,alevelonlyexceededthisdecadeduring
3、theGFC.While1xmayResearchAnalystnotsoundlow,thisisasectorpickingupfromthelowendofitsmargincycle,that+852-22036145paysoutthevastmajorityofearnings.Thisreportattemptstoscreenforwherereboundsarepotentiallyavailable,withChinaMobile,Telstra,Singtel,StarHubSrin
4、ivasRao,CFAandChinaTelecomstandingout.CT,CMandTLS,forexample,areclosetotwoResearchAnalyststandarddeviationscheaponrelativeP/E.Interestingly,StarHub'soutgoingCEO+65-64234114justboughtSGD0.5mofstock.Wewouldhavemadeinsidertransactionsafactor-butitissorareint
5、elcos,itseemedpointless.CraigWong-PanResearchAnalystInvestorsseevalue,butarewaitingforcatalysts,duetoearningssluggishnessin+61-2-8258-2848recentyears.Whileastrongearningspickupisnotobvious,thesectorislikelytoclimbthewallofcatalystworry.Wenotemarginshavest
6、artedtopickupafterhalvingoverthelast20years.Disintermediation(byOTT)hashurtrevenue,andthecostofmajornetworkupgradeshasliftedopex-as3G,4GandFTTxwerebuiltout.Governmenteffortstoimprovecompetition,havealsobeenpainful.Suchearningschallenges,however,occurinallb
7、usinesses,andtelcoshavefailedtosetpricingatlevelstoaccountfortheseissues.Thereisreasonforhopethough.Inalmostallmarketstherehavebeenattemptstonormalizepricingandcutmarketingcosts,suggestingmanagementisundersomepressuretodobetter.AndUSandJapanesetelecomstoc
8、kshavehadsolidrallies,provingthatthesectorhasitstimeandplace.Telcostradingatfairlyextremerelativelowsdon'tneedtogrowearningssharply,butjusthaveinvestorsbelieveprofitsarenotanchored.That'safairlylowbargiventhephaseint
